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固德威(688390):受欧洲库存影响业绩不及预期 预计24年逐步恢复

Goodway (688390): Affected by European inventories, performance falls short of expectations and is expected to gradually recover in 24 years

中信建投證券 ·  Feb 25

Core views

The company released its 2023 performance report: it is expected to achieve revenue of 7.352 billion yuan, +56.1% year on year; net profit to mother of 868 million yuan, +33.7% year over year; net profit after deducting 829 million yuan, +32.2% year on year; weighted average ROE of 33.01%, or -0.17pct year on year.

Affected by factors such as European inventories, the company's energy storage inverter shipments are expected to decline month-on-month. Along with the recovery in terminal demand in the European household market from March to April '24 and the gradual elimination of inventory to normal levels, the company's shipments are expected to resume quarterly in '24; profitability continues to remain at a high level.

occurrences

The company released its 2023 performance report: it is expected to achieve revenue of 7.352 billion yuan, +56.1% year on year; net profit to mother of 868 million yuan, +33.7% year over year; net profit after deducting 829 million yuan, +32.2% year on year; weighted average ROE of 33.01%, or -0.17pct year on year.

Looking at Q4 alone, Q4's revenue was 1.702 billion yuan, -5.2% year-on-month, -7.3%; net profit to mother was 25.08 million yuan, -399 million yuan, month-on-month -177 million yuan; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 55.91 million yuan, year-on-year -419 million yuan, and -198 million yuan month-on-month.

Brief review

The global photovoltaic market continues to show a relatively rapid growth trend, but due to the relationship between supply and demand in the market, overseas distributors' inventories are high, and industry competition is intensifying. In this context, the company strives to overcome difficulties, continue to focus on the main circuit, promote product transformation and technological innovation, and make deep efforts in R&D and the market. The brand potential has been further enhanced, the photovoltaic inverter and household systems business has achieved rapid growth, and the business performance has further improved.

With the gradual resolution of the energy crisis, electricity prices for European residents returned to normal levels, demand for terminal storage and installed equipment fell, and the European market experienced serious inventory problems, causing the company's shipments to continue to decline in the second half of '23. We expect that with the recovery of terminal demand in the European household market from March to April and the gradual elimination of inventory to normal levels, the company's shipments are expected to resume quarterly in '24.

Profit forecast and suggestions: We expect the company's 2023-2025 results to be 87, 9.1, and 1.09 billion yuan, with corresponding valuations of 21.9, 20.9, and 17.5X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk analysis

1. The photovoltaic and energy storage industry is less prosperous than expected risk: The solar photovoltaic and energy storage industry is highly correlated with the macroeconomic situation and national industrial policy. If the economy or industrial policies of major markets change significantly in the future, and PV installations fall short of expectations, it will affect the development of the industry and the growth rate of the company's revenue and profit to a certain extent;

2. Risk that component costs will continue to rise: IGBT supply may continue to be tight, and the shortage of raw materials will drive up the cost of downstream inverters, thereby limiting the pace of inverter shipments.

3. Industry competition intensifies risks: The prospects for energy storage development are good. Other leaders are entering the market with channel advantages, the production capacity of existing enterprises continues to expand, industry competition intensifies, and the company's business performance may be affected.

4. Risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuation: Affected by the increase in foreign currency to RMB exchange rate, RMB exchange rate fluctuations in 2023 are highly uncertain and may affect the company's revenue and profitability.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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