It focuses on high-performance multi-category coating products, with a compound revenue growth rate of 25.56% in 2019-2022. 1) Mecca Xincai is a high-tech enterprise dedicated to R&D, production and sales of high-performance multi-category coating products. 2) In 2019-2022, the company's total revenue was 701 million yuan, 941 million yuan, 1,990 million yuan and 1,387 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.56%. 3) According to product composition, the revenue structure is dominated by wind power paint revenue and container paint revenue.
The company currently has a total paint production capacity of 90,000 tons/year, and the layout of Zhuhai is cultivating new momentum for performance growth. 1) According to the Mecca Xincai prospectus, as of November 2, 2023, the company has two production bases in Shanghai and Nantong, with a total paint production capacity of 90,000 tons/year. 2) The company plans to build a new high-performance coating project with an annual output of 70,000 tons. Mecca, Zhuhai is the main implementing entity of the project. The total investment of the project is 430 million yuan, and it is planned to add 70,000 tons of paint products per year.
The company occupies nearly one-third of the market share of the wind power blade coating market, and its share of the container paint market is increasing year by year. 1) In 2020 and 2021, according to the Mecca Xincai prospectus, the company estimated that its wind power blade coatings occupied nearly one-third of the market share in this field and were in the leading position in the market. According to the “Responses from Issuers and Sponsors”, citing GWEC data, from 2024 to 2027, the market size of wind power blade coatings is expected to grow from 37348.80 tons to 47,589.60 tons, a total increase of 27.42% due to the impact of the “dual carbon” policy and global energy transition. 2) The performance indicators of Mecca's water-based paint are superior to industry standards. After launch, it quickly gained customer recognition, helping the company's container paint market share to increase year by year. According to Mecca's prospectus, the company estimates that in 2022 it will already occupy one-fifth of the market size of the container coating industry and is one of the top four container paint suppliers in China.
The company adheres to the “1+3+N” strategy and expands the direction of wind power tower coatings and ocean ship coatings. 1) The company adheres to the “1+3+N” strategy. The current business layout includes: wind power blades, wind power towers, photovoltaics, and energy storage equipment coatings in the new energy sector; containers, ships, and offshore coatings in the ocean transportation sector; and bridges and steel structures in the field of large infrastructure. 2) According to the company's development plan, the company's future business expansion direction mainly includes wind power tower coatings and ocean ship coatings.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We estimate that the net profit of Mecca Xincai in 2023-2025 will be 205, 303, and 377 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.90 yuan, 2.81 yuan, and 3.49 yuan, respectively. Referring to the company's historical valuation and the average valuation level of comparable companies, we gave the 2024 Mecca Xincai 21-23 times PE valuation range, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 59.01 to 64.63 yuan. For the first time, we covered it and gave it an investment rating of “superior to the market”.
Risk warning. Production capacity investment under construction fell short of expectations; macroeconomic decline; product prices fell.