Brief performance review
On February 22, 2024, the company released its 23-year performance report. In 23, it achieved operating income of 2,326 billion yuan, an increase of 26.05% over the previous year; realized net profit of 320 million yuan to mother, an increase of 24.41% over the previous year. Among them, 4Q23 achieved operating income of 587 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.86% and a decrease of 6.97% month-on-month; realized net profit to mother of 84 million yuan, an increase of 15.31% year-on-year, which was basically the same.
Management analysis
The company's performance is excellent, surpassing the industry level: In '23, the company implemented fine management while improving product performance, strictly controlled material procurement, product design and various expenses, continuously improved product competitiveness, and achieved excellent performance. According to data from the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the revenue of the Association's key connected enterprises increased 4.8% year on year from January to November '23, and total profit decreased 7.3% year on year. The company's revenue and profit growth rate was significantly higher than the industry level.
High overseas growth in 23 years, along with the increase in the company's share of overseas revenue, the “growth” attribute of going overseas gradually increased: the company actively explored overseas markets in '23, and the share of overseas revenue increased, which contributed greatly to the company's performance growth rate. At present, the company's products have been sold to more than 40 overseas countries or regions. With continuous improvement in product quality and good cost performance, it has won the trust of overseas customers, and its overseas market share is constantly increasing. We believe that following the global manufacturing migration trend, exports will be the development focus of all Chinese machine tool companies. The increase in overseas revenue share is the general trend. As the share of overseas revenue increases, the company's “cycle” attribute will weaken, the “growth” attribute will gradually increase, and overseas growth will also strongly support the company's valuation.
The third phase is expected to be fully put into operation in 24, and the fourth phase of production capacity construction will commence: According to the company's announcement, the company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate recently, and it is expected that the phase 3 project will be fully put into operation in 24. At the same time, according to the company's WeChat account, construction of the fourth phase of the company's factory began on January 12, '24, with a total investment of about 750 million yuan. After the fourth phase of delivery, the company's annual output value is expected to reach 3.5 billion yuan.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Adjusted to the company's profit forecast, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 3.2/3.89/482 million yuan from 23 to 25, respectively, corresponding to the current PE17X/14X/11X. Considering that the company's performance is better than the industry level and the share of overseas revenue has increased, it is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend as production capacity expansion continues to maintain a high growth trend and maintain an “gain” rating.
Risk warning
The recovery in the machine tool industry fell short of expectations, and the ban on restricted stocks was lifted.