Source: Gelonghui
Tourism is popular during the Spring Festival. Hainan is now “struggling to leave the islands”, and small potatoes from the south continue to pour into Northeast China...
The capital market is also “hot and hot”. Travel stocks have been rising for many days, and the A-share travel sector index has been popular for 4 consecutive days.
Today, Zhangjiajie went up and down in a straight line. Changbai Mountain rose more than 6%, Guilin tourism rose more than 5%, and Dalian Shengya and Tianmu Lake rose more than 3%.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Ctrip raised more than 7% to HK$355. The stock price reached a record high, with a market value of nearly HK$230 billion. Hong Kong China Travel Service and Tongcheng Travel increased by more than 2%.
According to the news, the Spring Festival travel data is hot, and Ctrip's net revenue in 2023 increased 122% year-on-year.
The travel market is booming
With the development of the times, tourism has become the choice for more and more people to spend the Spring Festival.
Single people don't want to face questions such as marriage promotion and childbirth from the Seven Grandparents and the Eight Great Aunts, so they choose to travel for the holidays.
At the same time, many families are no longer limited to going home for the Spring Festival, but instead choose to travel with the whole family and have a great time.
In terms of domestic travel, according to estimates from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, the number of domestic travel trips during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday was 474 million, up 34.3% year on year, recovering to 119% of the same period in 2019; achieving domestic tourism revenue of 632,687 billion yuan, up 47.3% year on year, recovering to 107.7% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable caliber; calculated per capita consumption of 1,335 yuan, which recovered to about 91% in the same period in 2019.
In terms of outbound travel, the number of outbound tourists during the Spring Festival was 3.6 million, close to the same period in 2019. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism estimates that in 2024, the number of outbound tourists will reach 130 million, an increase of 49% over the previous year, returning to 84% in 2019. The impetus may be the continued resumption of international routes, mutual visa exemption agreements, and the acceleration of the visa process.
Strong performance of individual stocks
Consistent with the popularity of travel data, individual stocks also performed well.
Today, Ctrip Group announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.
Results showed that Ctrip's net revenue for the fourth quarter was 10.3 billion yuan, and net revenue for the full year of 2023 was 44.5 billion yuan, up 105% and 122%, respectively.
In the fourth quarter, Ctrip's domestic hotel reservations increased by more than 130%; outbound hotel and air ticket reservations recovered to more than 80% in the same period in 2019; and total bookings on Ctrip's international OTA platform increased by more than 70% year over year.
By business, Ctrip's fourth quarter accommodation reservation business revenue was 3.9 billion yuan, up 131% year over year. Transportation ticketing business revenue was 4.1 billion yuan, up 123% year over year. The revenue from the travel and vacation business was 704 million yuan, up 329% year on year. The business revenue of the business travel management business was 2.3 billion yuan, up 109% year over year.
Additionally, Ctrip CEO Sun Jie predicts: “The global tourism industry has shown outstanding resilience and is expected to maintain its growth trend.”
Institutions: Market expectations are expected to boost
As for the current Spring Festival travel data exceeding expectations, agencies generally believe that it is expected to boost travel expectations throughout the year.
CITIC Securities believes that overall, the resilience of residents' demand for leisure travel consumption has been verified, which is expected to enhance the market's confidence in the continued growth of service consumption throughout the year. It is recommended to configure travel-related sections: OTA, outbound travel, scenic spots, tax exemptions, hotels, and gaming.
Bank of China Securities believes that the Super Changchun Festival holiday triggered a good start in the domestic cultural tourism market, and the recovery of cross-border travel accelerated due to favorable supply sides. Looking at the cultural tourism market, it is expected that the trend will continue to be hot throughout the year.
The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that there was strong growth in travel consumption during the Spring Festival holiday. Combined with the market's previous perception that duty-free consumption is suffering from downgraded consumption, there are signs of steady improvement, which will help the market revise pessimistic expectations that the travel sector is facing high base pressure in 2024.
It is recommended to focus on three main lines of investment:
1) There is still marginal room for improvement in the outbound travel sector. It is recommended to focus on OTA (Ctrip, Tongcheng Travel) and gaming (MGM China);
2) Companies that are optimistic about domestic travel products and models and have the ability to innovate and iterate recommend Tianmu Lake and Sante Ropeway;
3) The pro-cyclical section suggests focusing on layout opportunities and recommending China Free, Jinjiang Hotels, and First Travel Hotels.
edit/lambor