Introduction to this report:
The company has a deep layout in the field of self-exemption. Existing varieties contribute to stable cash flow. It is expected that the four core varieties will enter the harvest period one after another within the next three years. The mature self-defense sales team will help release new products quickly and guarantee future growth momentum.
Key points of investment:
Covered for the first time, an increase in holdings rating is given. The company has a deep layout in the self-defense industry. Existing products support short-term performance growth. Four core products are under development, and there is plenty of momentum for subsequent growth. We expect the company's EPS in 2023-2025 to be 0.45/0.47/0.49 yuan respectively. Combining relative valuation and absolute valuation methods, the target price will be 30.96 yuan, initial coverage, and an increase in holdings rating.
Deeply laid out on a free circuit, the four core products will soon enter the harvest period in the next three years, and the overall sales peak will exceed 5.5 billion yuan. The company focuses on the development of innovative drugs that free themselves from the racetrack. The IL-4R monoclonal antibody 611 adult AD indication phase III has been initiated. The progress is leading in China. AD and crSWnP indications for children and adolescents are also progressing steadily, and the future peak is expected to exceed 2 billion. The IL-17A monoclonal antibody has not been approved as a domestic product. The market space is broad. 608 is expected to submit an NDA in 2024, with a peak value of 1 billion dollars. As a better choice for eosinophilic asthma, IL-5 monoclonal antibody is progressing the fastest in the same target domestic product category. The efficacy of the same dose is superior to mepolizumab. It is expected to quickly seize the market after marketing, and is expected to reach a peak of 1 billion yuan. Acute gout arthritis starts quickly and the pain is unbearable. However, current treatments are difficult to meet patients' needs. IL-1beta monoclonal antibody 613 has excellent efficacy for patients with acute gout arthritis, rapid clinical progress, and a good competitive pattern. It is expected to seize a large domestic market share in the future, with a peak value of over 1.5 billion yuan. The R&D pipeline drives long-term performance growth.
Existing pipelines support short-term performance, and cost control continues to improve. Among the products already on the market, two products are in the rapid expansion stage. The impact of the core product Yisaipu harvesting is marginally weakening, cost control capabilities continue to improve, and R&D investment is optimized according to pipeline progress, which is expected to guarantee short-term performance.
Catalysts: core product data reading, core product submission NDA risk warning: risk of failure in new drug development, risk of increased market competition, risk of falling short of expected sales