根据公告，预计公司2023 年实现营业收入2515.24 亿元，同减2%，主要系产品价格下跌的影响超过销量增长所致；归母净利润28.48 亿元，同减5%，主要系厨房食品利润同比下降所致，扣非归母净利润13.21 亿元，同减59%，主要系未完全满足套期会计要求的衍生金融工具及结构性存款损益的影响。其中2023Q4 预计实现营业收入630.01 亿元，同减10%，归母净利润7.19 亿元，同增9 %，扣非归母净利润4.12 亿元，同减55%。On 2024/2/21, Arowana announced the 2023 performance forecast.
Key points of investment
Performance is under slight pressure, and rising volumes and falling prices are dragging down profits
According to the announcement, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 251,524 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 2%, mainly due to the impact of falling product prices exceeding sales growth; net profit to mother of 2,848 billion yuan, a decrease of 5%, mainly due to a year-on-year decline in kitchen food profit, net profit of 1,321 billion yuan, a decrease of 59%, mainly due to the impact of profits and losses on derivative financial instruments and structured deposits that do not fully meet hedging requirements. Among them, 2023Q4 is expected to achieve operating income of 63.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 10%, net profit attributable to mother of 719 million yuan, an increase of 9%, and net profit without return to mother of 412 million yuan, a decrease of 55%.
Kitchen food is under relative pressure, and the central kitchen business accelerates layout
Sales of the company's main products are growing well, but the decline in prices of major products has put pressure on revenue/profit. In kitchen food, retail channel products benefited from lower costs, year-on-year increase in profits, and increased sales of channel products in the catering and food industry, while prices of major products declined somewhat due to falling raw material prices, compounded by demand for 2023Q4 flour, which led to a decline in overall profit. As the company continues to promote the development/optimization of high-end chemical products and the digestion of high-level stocks of superimposed wheat raw materials, the profitability of kitchen food is expected to continue to recover. In terms of feed raw materials and oil technology, the company's compression profits have continued to increase, benefiting from the recovery in soybean meal product prices due to tight domestic soybean supply since 2023Q3. The business of Central Chef continues to advance. The company plans to continue to promote the development of Central Chef through the “self-employment+investment” model, integrate upstream and downstream ingredients in one stop, and continuously expand the overall competitiveness of enterprises and brands.
Profit forecasting
As a kitchen food leader, the company is actively seeking diversified development, and is optimistic about the release of performance flexibility brought about by subsequent product upgrades and the development of the Central Chef business. According to the performance report, we adjusted the 2023-2025 EPS to 0.53/0.77/1.04 yuan (previous values were 0.51/0.76/1.03 yuan, respectively), and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 62/42/31 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of changes in industry policies, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, fluctuations in downstream demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.
