Hot news

• Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: The timing of the “first drop” is still unclear, and the trajectory of inflation needs to be observed

Meeting minutes show that at the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting at the end of last month, Fed policymakers generally believed that the current policy interest rate may have reached the peak of this week's interest rate hike cycle, acknowledging that the risk of inflation continuing to rise is reduced, but they are wary of future interest rate cuts, and the exact timing of the first rate cut is still unclear. Most Federal Reserve officials also mentioned the risk of cutting interest rates too fast.

• The driving force behind fluctuations in US stocks? Wall Street brokers are feverishly flooding the “end of the day” market

Wall Street brokers are frantically introducing various new strategies to seize a share of the market regardless of whether the End Date Right (0DTE) is the “culprit” that has caused fluctuations in US stocks, according to media reports on Wednesday. The analysis points out that the previous moment, various fund managers were still swaying in the stock market due to new economic data, and the second moment was influenced by new monetary policy speculations, and the securities industry was looking for ways to tap into the demand for options from institutions and retail investors.

• The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; US mortgage interest rates will soar first

The US 30-year fixed mortgage contract interest rate rose 19 basis points to 7.06% for the week ending February 16. This is the first time since the beginning of December last year that US mortgage interest rates have jumped above 7%, and it is also the biggest weekly increase since October.

• The 20-year US Treasury Auction “crashed”, highlighting that weak demand had reached a record high end of interest spreads

On Wednesday local time, the US Treasury auctioned off 16 billion US dollars of 20-year treasury bonds. The results of the auction were bleak, causing US bond yields to rise during the day. The bid interest rate this time was 4.595%, which is significantly higher than the 4.423% in the previous auction. The pre-issue interest rate is 4.562%, which means that the “tail” reflecting weak demand is as high as 3.3 basis points. This is the biggest tail spread on US bonds of this maturity since the launch of the 20-year US Treasury bond auction in May 2020, highlighting weak demand.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The NASDAQ fell three times in a row, and S&P rebounded thrillingly

On Wednesday (February 21), US stocks collectively opened low and extended their decline until there was a clear rebound near the end of the session. Among them, the Dow and S&P both turned higher, while the NASDAQ narrowed the 1% decline to 0.3%.

Big tech stocks had mixed ups and downs, with Microsoft down 0.15%, Apple up 0.42%, and Meta down 0.68%. Most popular Chinese securities rose; Ideal Auto rose 4.09%, Alibaba rose 3.34%, and JD rose 2.41%

• Nvidia's fourth-quarter revenue, profit, and first-quarter guidance all exceeded expectations, rising more than 10% after the market

A lot of attention$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The fourth quarter earnings report was released after the market on Wednesday. The financial report showed that despite bearing the market's extremely high expectations, Nvidia's revenue and profit for the fourth quarter both soared year on year and exceeded analysts' expectations. The company's revenue and profit have set records for three consecutive quarters. Huang Renxun said that generative artificial intelligence had reached a “tipping point.” As both the fourth quarter results and the first quarter results guidance exceeded analysts' expectations, Nvidia's stock price once surged more than 10% after the market.

• Successfully won an order from Microsoft, and Intel's chip foundry business achieved a major victory

$Intel (INTC.US)$Successfully attracted$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$As a chip foundry business customer, it marks a key victory for the company in reversing losses. Microsoft and Intel said at an event on Wednesday that Microsoft plans to use Intel's 18A manufacturing technology to produce self-developed chips.

• Google released Gemma, an open source AI model, saying its performance is the most advanced on the same scale

Tech giants$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$The next-generation open source model “Gemma” was released. The company said it was the “most advanced” open model series in the lightweight category, surpassing the original strongest Mistral 7B.

• Performance guidance fell short of expectations, and cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks plummeted more than 28% after the results

$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$Overnight closing fell by more than 28%. The company expects the total revenue range for the 2024 fiscal year to be between US$7.95 billion and US$8 billion, an increase of 15% to 16% over the previous year, while the total revenue cap previously set by the company reached US$8.2 billion, and analysts generally expected US$8.18 billion. The company's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 was US$1.98 billion, up 19% year over year, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations; earnings per share under non-GAAP standards were $1.46, higher than analysts' general expectations.

• TSMC: Subsidiary sells 85,000 Arm shares for US$102 million

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The subsidiary TSMC Partners announced on Wednesday that it will sell 850,000 Arm shares with a cash package of 102 million US dollars. According to the announcement, this time$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$The unit price of the share sale was US$119.47, and the sale made TSMC profit of US$58 million. Although TSMC said that the sale is intended to recoup costs and there are no further plans to sell shares, Arm will lift the IPO ban next month. Analysts believe that if SoftBank, which holds 90% of its shares, sells stocks, it may continue to put pressure on Arm's stock price.

• Rivian's FY2024 automotive production guidance falls short of expectations, announces 10% layoffs

Electric vehicle manufacturers$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was US$1.32 billion, and analysts expected US$1.25 billion; the company expects to produce 57,000 vehicles in the 2024 fiscal year; analysts expect 80,000 vehicles; the company announced that it will lay off 10% of its employees. After the results were announced, the stock plummeted by more than 15% after the market.

• Lucid's fourth-quarter revenue falls short of expectations

electric vehicle company$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was US$157.2 million; analysts expected US$178.4 million; loss per share for the fourth fiscal quarter was $0.29 million; profit before interest and tax for the fourth quarter was US$604.6 million; analysts expected US$667.1 million; the company expects to produce 9,000 vehicles in 2024. After the results were announced, the stock fell more than 6% after the market.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui sold Hong Kong stock ETFs for about HK$300 million each, Meituan and China Mobile

On February 21 (Wednesday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$1,082 million in Hong Kong stocks.

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$323 million, HK$291 million and HK$157 million respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Net sales were HK$676 million, HK$498 million and HK$406 million respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: number of initial jobless claims, preliminary US markit manufacturing/service PMI value in February, Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson's speech

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, we can focus on the number of initial US jobless claims, the US preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for February, and the US preliminary Markit service PMI for February.

The US PMI surveys will be released on Thursday. These surveys are regarded as one of the most timely measures of economic activity in the field. US retail sales fell sharply in January, prompting some observers to wonder whether American consumers are starting to slow down their spending.

The February PMI data will let traders know if the strong momentum of the economy can continue into this month. Eugene Epstein, head of structured products in North America at the cross-border payment company Moneycorp, said that the flexible US labor market, and better-than-expected economic growth and inflation data suggest “a sideways fluctuation or slow rise is a situation where the dollar is more likely to occur.”

Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Jefferson will deliver a speech, and investors can keep an eye on it.

In terms of financial reports,$Nikola (NKLA.US)$The latest US stock results will be announced before the market;$Intuit (INTU.US)$,$Nu Holdings (NU.US)$,$Block (SQ.US)$,$Carvana (CVNA.US)$The list will be released after the market; Hong Kong stocks$LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$Results will be announced.

Futubull Chen read:

Patience is the most valuable quality of great freelancers.

—Charlie Munger

Editor/Corrine