The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that 24 is still a critical year for the “oil and electricity dispute,” and that price cuts for new energy, especially leading companies, lead to phased price reduction promotions for fuel vehicles are inevitable. However, this price reduction for new energy vehicles is mainly due to the off-season combined with preparations for clearance before new cars go on sale. The bank said that in the second quarter, many major new cars will be released intensively, and demand for car purchases under the new car cycle is expected to be active. The passenger car sector responds well with short-term pessimistic expectations, and the medium term is optimistic: 1) Changan Automobile (000625.SZ): the new car cycle and Huawei cooperation resonate, and overall business is improving; 2) Focus on Xiaopeng Motor-W (09868), which has a fast smart driving layout, and BYD (002594.SZ) and Ideal Automobile-W (02015), which are active in channel development and new car launches.

Huatai Securities's views are as follows:

The current pricing strategy is more reflected in the off-season combined with the phenomenon of clearing new cars before they go on sale

Since February, more than 7 car companies have announced price reduction promotions, with discount amounts ranging from 0.5 to 65,000 yuan, including new energy brands Xiaopeng, BYD, Changan Qiyuan, Nezha, etc., as well as fuel vehicle brands Hyundai and GM. The year 24 is still a critical year for the “oil and electricity dispute”. Phased price reduction and promotion of fuel vehicles due to price cuts for new energy sources, especially leading companies, is inevitable. However, this price reduction for new energy vehicles is mainly due to the off-season combined with preparations for clearance before new cars go on sale. In the second quarter, many major new cars will be released intensively, such as Ideal MEGA, Tank 700Hi4-T, Extreme Krypton 001 facelift, Deep Blue C318, Tank 300PHEV, Qin L, Yuan UP, etc., and demand for car purchases is expected to increase during the new car cycle. The passenger car sector responds well to short-term pessimistic expectations, and is optimistic in the medium term: 1) Changan Automobile: The new car cycle and cooperation with Huawei resonate, and overall business is improving; 2) Focus on Xiaopeng, which has a fast smart driving layout, and BYD and Ideal, which are active in channel development and new car launches.

Prices for new energy vehicles are reduced in the off-season to prepare for the launch of new vehicles; price cuts for fuel vehicles are passive price cuts

According to the company's official website/Auto Home and other information sources: 1) Xiaopeng: On February 4, the 23 G6 dropped 20,000 yuan to 189,900 yuan; the G9 was 10,000 yuan in cash plus 11,000 yuan for optional equipment, and the starting sale was 253,900 yuan. This is an off-season increase capacity utilization rate and accelerate the share of joint ventures/foreign investments. 2) BYD: Released the Qin PLUS Honor Edition on February 19, with an off-season clearance of 20,000 yuan to prepare for the launch of the new car in March-April; 3) Qiyuan: A05 sales dropped to 78,900 yuan (down 11,000 yuan); 4) Nana: S/GT/X/AYA reduced price ranging from 0.5-22,000 yuan; 5) Wuling: Starlight 150 Advanced Edition reduced price by 60,000 yuan, starting sale as low as 99,800 yuan. 6) Beijing Hyundai: Elantra dropped 24,000 yuan on February 19, starting sales as low as 75,800 yuan, passively reducing prices to cope with the decline in sales; 7) SAIC-GM: On February 19-29, LaCrosse, Velang Pro, and Encore Plus offered bike discounts and replacement subsidies of 3.5/5.5/65,000 yuan respectively.

The year 24 is still a critical year for the “oil and electricity dispute”, and the intensity of market competition has increased

In '23, China sold 8.86 million new energy passenger vehicles in wholesale, and the penetration rate of new energy was 34.7%, +6.6pct compared to the previous year. The bank expects China's wholesale sales volume of NEV passenger vehicles to be 11.01 million units in 24, +24% year-on-year, and the NEV penetration rate is 41%. Meanwhile, the fuel vehicle market is under pressure, and the wholesale growth rate is expected to be -6% in 24 years.

Furthermore, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Federation, mentioned that the rapid development of electric vehicles, the decline in the cost of new energy sources, and the “same price for oil and electricity” are putting tremendous pressure on fuel vehicle manufacturers. Fuel vehicle products are relatively slow to upgrade, the degree of product intelligence is not high, and they rely more on preferential prices to continue to attract customers. The game process between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles in the old and new markets will continue for several years until the new pattern is fully formed. During this period, phased price reduction promotions are an inevitable phenomenon. As an automobile industry with significant scale effects, manufacturers are bound to prioritize sales share, increase capacity utilization, and increase price competition to a certain extent.

Retail sales in January-February are expected to be +16% to 23% year-on-year, and the upcoming intensive release of new cars is expected to drive industry growth

The bank estimates that in January-February, China's passenger car retail sales volume is expected to reach 310-3.3 million units, +16% to 23% year-on-year. Looking ahead to the second quarter, several important models will soon be launched, such as the U9 (February 25), the Tank 700Hi4-T (February 26), the Extreme Krypton 001 facelift (February 27), and the Ideal MEGA (March 1). The bank expects that new cars such as the Changan Deep Blue C318, Qiyuan A06, Tank 300PHEV, Euler A+ class SUV, Qin L, and Yuan UP will also be released between March and April. The 24-year core models of various car companies may be unveiled at auto shows. The new car cycle is expected to stimulate demand for car purchases.

Risk warning: Demand is insufficient due to the macroeconomic downturn; the shortage of chips continues.