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甘李药业(603087):股权激励彰显信心 业绩增长动能强劲

Ganli Pharmaceutical (603087): Equity incentives show confidence, strong momentum for performance growth

國泰君安 ·  Feb 20

Introduction to this report:

The company announced the 2024 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan, demonstrating confidence in performance growth. Driven by multiple factors such as special insulin collection, overseas product delivery, and self-developed pipelines, the company's long-term development momentum is strong.

Key points of investment:

Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the original 2023-2025 EPS forecast of 0.57/1.05/1.90 yuan, maintain the target price of 60.03 yuan (corresponding to the 2025 target PE 30X), and maintain the holdings increase rating.

Equity incentives show confidence, and performance forecasts are in line with expectations. The company announced the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan. It plans to grant 7.13 million restricted shares (1.2% of total share capital) to 90 incentive recipients. The performance assessment target requires net profit of not less than 600 million yuan, 1.1 billion yuan (+83%), and 1.43 billion yuan (+30%) for 2024-2026, demonstrating the company's confidence in continued growth in performance. Earlier, the company issued a pre-profit announcement for the 2023 annual results. The estimated net profit for 2023 is 29-350 million yuan, which is in line with market expectations compared to turning a loss into a profit in 2022.

Catalyzed by multiple factors, strong development momentum: (1) The first batch of special insulin collection was officially implemented in May 2022 for a period of two years, so we expect 2024Q2 to usher in the second batch of special insulin collection; in the first batch of special insulin collection, the company adopted a price-for-volume strategy, obtained an agreement volume of about 35.34 million units in the first year, and added nearly 10,000 new medical institutions. The market share will increase dramatically; insulin collection is expected to drive import substitution and bring continuous benefits to leading domestic producers; (2) The company's refined insulin collection is expected to drive import substitution and bring continuous benefits to leading domestic producers; (2) The company's refined insulin collection is expected to continue to benefit leading domestic producers; (2) The company adopted a price-for-volume strategy. Insulin, insulin lysine, and insulin are all in the US and Europe At the marketing review stage, it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in developed markets; (3) There are plenty of self-development pipelines, and the new long-term GLP-1 drug GzR18 is in phase IIb clinical (head-to-head with simeglutide), and 2024 is expected to usher in data reading.

catalysts. Domestic sales volume and overseas commercialization progress exceeded expectations; new drug development progress exceeded expectations? Risk warning. R&D progress falls short of expectations, product sales and promotion falls short of expectations, European and American drug review progress falls short of expectations, and the risk of price reduction in procurement

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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