The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the recovery in the number of domestic travelers during the Spring Festival was the same as the May 1st in 2023, and the performance exceeded expectations. The number of people and revenue recovery continued to increase over the previous New Year's Day and Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, while price recovery continued to decline. It is speculated that it is related to a recovery in supply, a more rational supply pricing strategy, and an increase in the share of rural consumption. The bank continues to be optimistic about the rational prosperity of domestic mass tourism. It is recommended to focus on 1) targets that are expected to perform well and have good sustainability in Q1, such as Jiuhua Travel (603199.SH), Songcheng Performing Arts (300144.SZ), Tongqing Building (605108.SH), etc.; 2) Overfalling Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound targets, such as Haidilao (06862) and Jiumaojiu (09922).

Guojin Securities's views are as follows:

Spring Festival Overview: The number of travelers exceeded expectations and continues to be optimistic about the rational prosperity of the travel market.

The recovery in the number of domestic travelers during the Spring Festival remained the same as the May 1st high in 2023, and the performance exceeded expectations. The number of people and revenue recovery continued to increase over the previous New Year's Day and Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, while price recovery continued to decline. It is speculated that it is related to a recovery in supply, more rational supply pricing strategies, and an increase in the share of rural consumption. The bank continues to be optimistic about the rational prosperity of domestic mass tourism. The number of outbound visitors was basically the same as in '19. The resumption of group tours was in line with expectations, and the performance of short-distance outbound destinations was impressive due to favorable visa-free policies, etc.

Spring Festival travel season: Intensity increased by 10% + compared to 23 and 19.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Transport, 2024/1/26 to 2/17 (23 days before the Spring Festival travel season), the total number of people moving across regions was 5.4 billion, +15.8% compared to the same period during the Spring Festival in '23, and +14.4% compared to the same period during the Spring Festival in '19. Looking at the structure, railways/highways (commercial) /highways (non-commercial) /waterways/civil aviation were 124.1%/43.2%/147.7%/57.7%/118.2% in '19, respectively. The total number of people moving across regions during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday was 2.29 billion, with an average daily recovery rate of 105.9% and 112.0% compared to 23 and 19, respectively.

Domestic travel: Domestic travel recovery has exceeded expectations.

According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, there were 474 million domestic travel trips during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, up 34.3% year on year, returning to 119.0% in the same period in 2019 according to a comparable scale; the total travel expenses of domestic tourists were 632,687 billion yuan, up 47.3% year on year, returning to 107.7% in the same period in 2019 according to a comparable scale; the implied passenger unit price was 1,335 yuan, up 9.4% year on year, corresponding recovery to 90.5% in the same period in 2019. The recovery in the number of domestic travelers during the Spring Festival was on par with the high of May 1st in 2023, and the performance exceeded expectations. The number of visitors and revenue recovery continued to increase over the previous New Year's Day and Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, while price recovery continued to decline. The characteristics of the increase in prices are in line with the bank's judgment that domestic tourism has entered rational prosperity in the current consumption environment.

Highlights of domestic travel: 1) The travel radius has been significantly lengthened. The average travel radius of visitors from all over the country is 227.9 km, up 10.2% year on year; the average leisure radius of tourist destinations is 15.4 km, up 38.0% year on year, reaching the highest level since data were available; 2) In terms of consumer portraits, the travel rate of rural residents across the country increased 24.6% during the Spring Festival, and the number of travelers accounted for 24.7% of domestic tourist trips. There are some consumption upgrades for parent-child tours and customized tours; 3) Listed scenic spot companies: the number of visitors is still increasing by double digits. Artificial scenic spots have benefited from a rapid increase in investment in new projects, and the new project in Foshan in Songcheng has climbed rapidly.

Outbound travel: Basically back to 19-year level.

According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were about 6.83 million inbound and outbound tours, including about 3.6 million outbound tours and 3.23 million inbound tours, all close to the same period in 2019; according to data from the National Administration of Immigration, 1.69 million visitors entered and left during the Spring Festival, recovering to nearly 90% during the Spring Festival period. The Ctrip platform's “New Matai” visa-free country travel orders increased significantly, with a total increase of more than 30% over 2019.

Catering: The data performance of the same store representing chain brands is steady, and the recovery from the low line is significantly better than the high line; it is expected that catering is better than that of brand restaurants in the business district.

According to Guojin Digital Future Lab's high-frequency tracking of representative hot pot chain brands, during the Spring Festival, the country's same-store turnover recovered to 105% and 71% in '23 and '21. Under the high base, same-store performance increased steadily compared to the same period in '23; in terms of urban structure, the recovery of low-tier cities was significantly better than that of higher-tier cities, which is related to returning home and traveling abroad during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the consumption performance of banquet food and beverage consumption is better than that of branded restaurants in the business district. Mainly due to stronger social demand for gatherings during the Spring Festival, there is a certain diversion of business district catering from returning home and traveling to other places.

Risk warning: Short-term recovery in consumer intentions falls short of expectations, uncertainty about outbound travel policies, labor shortages, sharp rise in raw material prices, etc.