XIAOMI(1810.HK):4Q23E PREVIEW:STRONG SMARTPHONE RECOVERY EYE ON EV PRODUCT LAUNCH IN 2Q24; MAINTAIN BUY
XIAOMI(1810.HK):4Q23E PREVIEW:STRONG SMARTPHONE RECOVERY EYE ON EV PRODUCT LAUNCH IN 2Q24; MAINTAIN BUY
Xiaomi will report its 4Q23 results in late March. We estimate 4Q revenue will deliver +10% YoY/+3% QoQ growth, and adj. net income will climb 180% YoY to RMB 4,096mn, mainly driven by strong smartphone sales and resilient internet revenue. We think 4Q23E results will be largely in-line with market expectations given outstanding sales of Xiaomi 14 and Double 11 sales event. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's smartphone sales will continue to improve with market recovery and continued share gains, and we are positive on EV product launch in 2Q24E and shipment ramp-up into 2H24E. We slightly trimmed our FY23-25E EPS by 1-6% for weaker 4Q23E GPM and EV business expenses. Our new TP of HK$ 19.54 is based on the same 24x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include EV product launch and smartphone market share gain.
小米將在3月下旬公佈其2023年第四季度業績。我們估計，第四季度收入將實現同比增長10％/環比增長3％，經調整後的淨收入將同比增長180％至人民幣40.96億元，這主要是由強勁的智能手機銷售和彈性的互聯網收入推動的。鑑於小米 14 和雙 11 銷售活動的出色銷售，我們認爲 4Q23E 的業績將在很大程度上符合市場預期。總體而言，我們預計，隨着市場復甦和份額的持續增長，小米的智能手機銷量將繼續改善，我們對 2Q24E 電動汽車產品的推出以及 2H24E 的出貨量增加持樂觀態度。由於 4Q23E GPM 和電動汽車業務支出疲軟，我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益略微下調了 1-6%。我們的新目標價爲19.54港元，基於相同的24倍 FY24E 市盈率。維持買入。催化劑包括電動汽車產品的發佈和智能手機市場份額的增加。
Smartphone: strong shipment recovery with QoQ ASP hike. Xiaomi's
智能手機：隨着QoQ ASP的上漲，出貨量強勁復甦。小米的
4Q23 shipment increased 23% YoY (vs. +8% YoY for industry) with market share of 13%, based on Canalys. Xiaomi's strong shipment recovery was mainly boosted by the outstanding Xiaomi 14 model sales in 4Q23. In terms of ASP, we expect 4Q23E ASP to increase 5.4% QoQ to RMB 1,050 due to stronger sales of high-end model. However, we think smartphone GPM will trend down to 16.0% due to gradual pick-up of BOM costs and promotion of Double 11 sales events. Looking into FY24E, we are positive on market share gain momentum (esp. overseas), and we expect Xiaomi's global shipment to rebound 6%/3% YoY to 155mn/160mn units in FY24/25E.
根據Canalys的數據，23年第四季度的出貨量同比增長23％（行業同比增長8％），市場份額爲13％。小米的強勁出貨量復甦主要是由小米14機型在23年第四季度的出色銷量推動的。就ASP而言，由於高端機型的銷售強勁，我們預計 4Q23E ASP將環比增長5.4％，至人民幣1,050元。但是，我們認爲，由於物料清單成本的逐步回升和雙11銷售活動的推廣，智能手機的GPM將下降至16.0％。展望 FY24E，我們對市場份額增長勢頭持樂觀態度（尤其是海外），我們預計小米的全球出貨量將在24/25財年同比反彈6％/3％，至1.55億/1.6億輛。
AIoT/internet: continued strength in internet revenue but weaker AIoT
AIoT/互聯網：互聯網收入持續強勁，但AIoT疲軟
product sales. We estimate AIoT/Internet revenue will deliver -0.8%/+10.1% YoY in 4Q23E (vs +8.5%/+9.7% YoY in 3Q23). We expect AIoT's QoQ sales to decline, attributable to weak season for TV/air conditioner/refrigerator/ washing machine. We also expect AIoT GPM to trend down to 13.5%, due to higher BOM costs and product mix shift. For internet business, we think continued growth in 4Q23 was supported by strong advertising revenue.
產品銷售。我們估計，4Q23E 中的人工智能物聯網/互聯網收入將同比增長-0.8％/+10.1％（而23年第三季度同比增長8.5％/+9.7％）。我們預計，由於電視/空調/冰箱/洗衣機的淡季，AIoT的銷售環比將下降。我們還預計，由於物料清單成本上漲和產品結構轉移，AIoT GPM將下降至13.5％。對於互聯網業務，我們認爲強勁的廣告收入支持了23年第四季度的持續增長。
Overall, our FY23/24E adj. EPS is 4%/21% above consensus due to our positive view on higher GPM and better expense control.
總體而言，我們的 23/24E 財年調整數由於我們對更高的GPM和更好的支出控制持積極看法，每股收益比預期高出4％/21％。
Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$ 19.54; Positive on smartphone market recovery and EV product launch in 2Q24E. We slightly trimmed our FY23-
維持買入，新目標價爲19.54港元；對智能手機市場復甦和電動汽車產品在 2Q24E 的推出持樂觀態度。我們略微削減了23財年-
25E EPS by 1-6% for weaker 4Q23E GPM and expense concerns over EV business. Our new TP of HK$ 19.54 is based on the same 24x FY24E P/E.
由於4Q23E GPM疲軟以及對電動汽車業務的支出擔憂，25E每股收益增長了1-6％。我們的新目標價爲19.54港元，基於相同的24倍 FY24E 市盈率。
Trading at 15.5x FY24E P/E, we think the valuation is attractive (vs 23x 5- year avg. P/E). Maintain BUY.
FY24E 市盈率爲15.5倍，我們認爲估值具有吸引力（而5年平均值爲23倍）。市盈率）。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。