Real estate industry tracking

The property market is tepid during the Spring Festival. Can “Xiaoyangchun” be expected?

来源：e公司作者：陈英

近期，克而瑞、中指、安居客、诸葛找房等都发布了春节期间的楼市数据。总体来看，今年春节期间，主要城市新房供应和成交都不理想。

假期市场活跃度不足

据克而瑞研究中心统计的数据，2024年春节假期，房企推盘积极性普遍不高。受楼市低迷行情影响，房企多以顺销平销、去库存为主，多数城市春节周(2月9日—2月15日)近乎于0供应，结合春节前一周(2月2日—2月8日)累计两周的新增供应来看依旧不容乐观。克而瑞研究中心统计的50个重点城市在春节两周(2月2日—2月15日)的新增供应量仅为396.44万平方米，同比下降11%，较2022年同期下降了53%。

44个重点城市在春节周(2月9日—2月15日，下同)新房成交仅为23.38万平方米，环比春节前一周(2月2日—月8日)下降87%，同比去年春节周下降40%，较2022年同期降幅也达到了82%。

中指研究院《2024年春节置业调查》数据也不乐观。数据显示，2024年春节假期期间(2.10~2.17)25个代表城市新房日均成交面积较上年春节假期(2023.1.21~2023.1.27)下降约27%。

中指研究院分析，整体来看，春节期间各地新房楼市成交表现较为平淡，购房者观望情绪仍较重。北京、深圳在政策带动下市场情绪出现回升，但成交端表现尚不明显;上海、成都受出游及返乡影响，假期期间市场活跃度不足，预计节后逐渐回升，而青岛、郑州等地楼市短期仍处市场调整期。

二手房销售表现不错

春节楼市成绩不好，广东省规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，主要有四个原因：

1、出行热情超高，冲淡了楼市。
2024年春节是近四年唯一没有受到疫情影响的春节长假，去年尽管春节期间放开了管制，但感染群体迅速扩大，出行受到影响。作为国人看重的传统节日，出行、旅游、返乡等需求，受到了抑制，积累的需求释放，导致出行、旅游、观影、消费等数据都创历史新高，看房、买房的自然少了，这是主要原因。
2、供给端推盘积极性低。
春节假期，楼市情绪延续1月份的低迷态势。供需两端都比较弱势，1月份，30个重点城市新房供应环比下降47%，较2023年月均下降44%。春节期间，多数城市春节周(2024年2月9日—2月15日)新房近乎于0供应。当然，也有客观原因。比如很多企业年前放假早，比如刚刚冲刺完年度业绩。重要的是，去年各大城市新盘去化率在30%—50%。在售盘都有货值，再推新盘，会给市场的感觉就是卖不出去。
3、开发商优惠措施不足。
不仅供应积极性不高，折扣力度也无惊喜。这也是有原因的，一方面，降价卖房贯穿2023年，折扣营销就没停过，春节期间延续了常规营销优惠，比如一口价、折上折、送物业、送家电、抽奖等等;另一方面，开发商知道大家都回家了，都外出了，售楼处冷清，也就保持顺销姿态了。另外，继续降价，效果可能不见好，因为市场预期还会降价，而且还砸品牌。
4、市场预期仍不稳定。
笔者线下踩盘发现，春节期间各大售楼处来访量只有20组/天左右。这与克而瑞统计的春节期间盘均20—70组客户/盘差异不大。开发商顺销，没有更惊喜的折扣，能卖就卖，也不费力吆喝，购房者预期后续还会降价，只是看看，姿态很佛系，转化率比较低。媒体披露，各大城市8天假期，平均每个盘成交5套以内。

但需要注意的是，今年春节，二手房表现不错。

贝壳研究院监测，2024年春节假期重点50城市二手住房看房量和交易量水平比2023 年有大幅回升。按日均统计，分能级来看，一线城市比去年春节增加90%，仅略低于2021年;二线城市增加180%，三线城市增加140%，均大幅超过2023年及2021年。李宇嘉认为主要是因为，一是购房者担心期房交付有困难，转向二手房市场;另一方面，二手房选择面广，小户型多、总价可控，具有学位或区位优势;此外，去年春节期间二手房带看、磋商、成交等均受到疫情影响，导致同期低基数。

小阳春能否再现?

从各平台统计的数据来看，2024年春节前一周重点城市新房成交量开始波动下行，春节周降至低位。但是，从年初二开始，日度成交量开始缓步上行，至2月17日(正月初八)达到11万平方米，为春节假期单日高点，但整体成交尚未恢复到节前一周水平，显示需求在缓慢修复。2023年一季度“小阳春”成色十足形成了高基数，今年一季度难有表现亮眼的交易数据。

对于后市，李宇嘉认为，市场最终能否企稳，要看3—4月份的数据。一方面，去年3月下旬开始，销售开始放缓，形成了低基数;另一方面，节前重点城市相继出台重磅纾困政策，加上今年将稳增长、扩内需、促就业放在更加突出的位置，考虑到需求端正在修复，预计3—4月份商品房市场将会回到企稳的态势中。

克而瑞研究中心认为，2024年楼市开局依旧很“难”，年前核心一二线城市诸如上海、苏州、深圳等相继松绑限购，不过密集利好政策叠加似乎并未在春节楼市激起太大的浪花：一是热点城市、热点项目个数仍在不断下降，春节楼市仅西安、杭州、重庆等少数城市市场表现略好于去年同期;二是三四线返乡置业爽约，尤其是安徽、四川、苏北等三四线城市，刚需购买力降级对楼市的负面作用也在逐步显现。三是上海、北京、合肥等核心城市二手房市场暂无明显起色，置换需求难以释放。基于此，我们认为，2024年2月整体成交环比或将进一步下行，市场恢复预期要至3—4月。

编辑/lambor

Source: e-Company Author: Chen Ying

Recently, Kerui, China Index, Anjuker, Zhuge Housing Search, etc. have all released property market data during the Spring Festival. Overall, during the Spring Festival this year, the supply and transactions of new homes in major cities were not ideal.

The holiday market is not active enough

According to statistics from the Kerry Research Center, during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, housing enterprises were generally not very motivated to sell. Affected by the slump in the property market, most housing enterprises mainly sell smoothly and remove inventory. Most cities have close to zero supply during the Spring Festival week (February 9 to February 15). Combined with the cumulative two weeks of new supply during the week before the Spring Festival (February 2 to February 8), there is still no room for optimism. The 50 key cities according to the Kerry Research Center added only 3.964,400 square meters of new supply during the two weeks of the Spring Festival (February 2 to February 15), a year-on-year decrease of 11% and a decrease of 53% from the same period in 2022.

New housing transactions in 44 key cities were only 233,800 square meters during the Spring Festival week (February 9 to February 15, same below), down 87% from the week before the Spring Festival (February 2 to January 8), down 40% from last year's Spring Festival week, and 82% from the same period in 2022.

The data from the China Index Research Institute's “2024 Spring Festival Property Survey” is also not optimistic. According to the data, during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday period (2.10 to 2.17), the average daily sales area of new homes in the 25 representative cities decreased by about 27% compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday (2023.1.21 to 2023.1.27).

According to an analysis by the China Index Research Institute, overall, the transaction performance of new housing markets around the world during the Spring Festival was relatively lackluster, and buyers were still very wait-and-see. Market sentiment has rebounded in Beijing and Shenzhen, driven by policies, but transactional performance is not obvious; Shanghai and Chengdu are affected by travel and homecoming, and market activity during the holiday period is insufficient. It is expected that they will gradually pick up after the holiday season, while the property markets in Qingdao, Zhengzhou and other places are still in a short period of market adjustment.

Second-hand housing sales performed well

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, believes that there are four main reasons for the poor performance of the Spring Festival property market:

1. Enthusiasm for travel is extremely high, diluting the property market.
The 2024 Spring Festival was the only Spring Festival holiday not affected by the epidemic in the past four years. Despite deregulation during the Spring Festival last year, the number of infected people spread rapidly, and travel was affected. As a traditional festival that Chinese people value, demand for travel, travel, and homecoming has been suppressed, and accumulated demand has been released. As a result, data on travel, travel, movie viewing, and consumption have all reached record highs. Naturally, there is less house viewing and buying. This is the main reason.
2. The motivation of supply-side pushes is low.
During the Spring Festival holiday, property market sentiment continued the sluggish trend of January. Both supply and demand sides are weak. In January, the supply of new homes in 30 key cities fell 47% month-on-month, with an average monthly decline of 44% compared to 2023. During the Spring Festival, the supply of new homes during the Spring Festival week (February 9 to February 15, 2024) in most cities was close to zero. Of course, there are objective reasons. For example, many companies had an early vacation a few years ago, such as just sprinting to their annual results. Importantly, the rate of removal of new listings in major cities last year was 30% to 50%. They all have value on sale, and introducing a new one will give the market the feeling that it just can't be sold.
3. Insufficient preferential measures for developers.
Not only is the supply less active, but there are no surprises with the strong discounts. There is also a reason for this. On the one hand, selling houses at reduced prices throughout 2023, and discount marketing continued. Regular marketing offers continued during the Spring Festival, such as a purchase price, discounts, property delivery, home appliances, lottery, etc.; on the other hand, the developers knew that everyone had gone home, they all went out, and the sales office was deserted, so they maintained a smooth sales attitude. Also, if prices continue to be cut, the results may not be good, because the market expects prices to drop, and it will also destroy the brand.
4. Market expectations are still unstable.
The author stepped offline and found that during the Spring Festival, the number of visitors to major sales offices was only about 20 group/day. This is not much different from Kerry's average trading average of 20-70 groups of customers/market during the Spring Festival. The developer sells smoothly. There are no more surprising discounts. If they can sell it, it's not difficult to shout. Buyers expect the price to drop in the future. Just take a look. The attitude is very Buddhist, and the conversion rate is relatively low. The media revealed that during the 8-day vacation in major cities, each market sold less than 5 units on average.

However, it should be noted that during the Spring Festival this year, second-hand housing performed well.

According to the Shell Research Institute, the level of second-hand housing viewing and transaction volume in 50 key cities during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday showed a sharp recovery compared to 2023. According to daily average statistics, in terms of energy levels, first-tier cities increased 90% over last year's Spring Festival, only slightly lower than in 2021; second-tier cities increased 180%, and third-tier cities increased 140%, all significantly exceeding 2023 and 2021. Li Yujia believes that the main reason is that buyers are worried about difficulties in delivering off-plan housing and are switching to the second-hand housing market; on the other hand, there are a wide range of second-hand housing options, with many small units, manageable total prices, and degree or location advantages; in addition, during the Spring Festival last year, second-hand housing listings, negotiations, and transactions were all affected by the epidemic, leading to a low base for the same period.

Can Xiaoyangchun be recreated?

Judging from statistics from various platforms, the volume of new housing sales in key cities began to fluctuate and decline in the week before the 2024 Spring Festival, falling to a low level during the Spring Festival week. However, starting from the second day of the year, daily turnover began to slowly rise, reaching 110,000 square meters on February 17 (January 8), a single-day high during the Spring Festival holiday. However, overall transactions have not yet returned to the level of a week before the holiday season, indicating that demand is slowly recovering. The success of “Xiaoyangchun” in the first quarter of 2023 formed a high base, and it is difficult to have outstanding trading data for the first quarter of this year.

Regarding the future market, Li Yujia believes that whether the market can stabilize in the end depends on the March-April data. On the one hand, starting in late March of last year, sales began to slow down, forming a low base; on the other hand, key cities introduced major bailout policies before the holiday season. In addition, this year placed steady growth, domestic demand expansion, and employment promotion in a more prominent position. Considering that the demand side is being repaired, it is expected that the commercial housing market will return to a steady trend from March to April.

The Kerui Research Center believes that the opening of the property market in 2024 is still very “difficult”. A few years ago, core Tier 1 and 2 cities such as Shanghai, Suzhou, and Shenzhen loosened purchase restrictions one after another, but the combination of intensive favorable policies did not seem to stir up much waves in the Spring Festival property market: first, the number of hot cities and hot projects was still declining. Only a few cities, such as Xi'an, Hangzhou, and Chongqing, performed slightly better than last year; second, the third- and fourth-tier cities returned to their hometowns to buy and sell their contracts. The negative effects of the newly needed downgrade purchasing power on the property market are also gradually showing. Third, the second-hand housing market in core cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hefei has yet to improve significantly, and demand for replacement is difficult to release. Based on this, we believe that overall transactions in February 2024 may decline further month-on-month, and market recovery is expected until March-April.

edit/lambor

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