Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor Group's production in January 2024 (January below refers to January 2024) was 243,883 vehicles, -11.45%/-59.91% year-on-month, and sales volume was 244,916 vehicles, +2.90%/-61.55%, respectively. Among them: SAIC passenger cars produced and sold 46,463/50,592 units in January, respectively, -10.25%/-9.17%, and -62.16%/-63.04%, respectively; SAIC Volkswagen's production and sales volume in January was 93,297/95,053 units, +23.34%/+32.00% year-on-year, and -24.29%/-33.37% month-on-month; SAIC-GM's monthly production and sales volume in January was 21,523/36,000 units, respectively 7.38%/-54.55% , -82.00%/-65.64% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling's production and sales volume in January was 51,510/35,000 vehicles, respectively, -27.61%/+16.67% year-on-year, and -73.75%/-82.64% month-on-month, respectively.
Wholesale sales increased by +2.90% year-on-year in January, and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year. 1) By brand, SAIC Volkswagen performed better. SAIC passenger car wholesale declined year-on-month. The Zhiji LS6 achieved sales of 4766 units in January, or -51.8%; SAIC Volkswagen ID. Series sales continued to exceed 10,000 units in a single month; SAIC-GM delivered 7,295 new energy vehicles in January, maintaining rapid year-on-year growth; SAIC-GM-Wuling wholesale was +16.67% year-on-year, and Wuling Starlight Moon was 10005 units. 2) By energy type, 64,300 new energy vehicles were sold at the group level, +99.7% compared with the same period last year. At the group level, NEV production batches in January were 715/64,300 units, +76.80%/+99.68% year-on-year, and -67.02%/-70.68% month-on-month respectively.
The penetration rate of new energy wholesale in January was 26.27%, +12.7/-8.2 pct compared with the same period last month. 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, SAIC Motor exported 64,200 vehicles in January, -16.23%/-54.58% year-on-month, respectively.
Among them, the SAIC MG brand delivered 20,000 vehicles in developed European countries. In mid-January, SAIC Motor's self-operated fleet expanded to 31 ships to help speed up overseas.
In January, SAIC Motor Group went to storage as a whole. SAIC Motor Group companies had an inventory of 1,033 vehicles in January (compared to December 2023), while SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC-GM-Wuling's inventory for the month was -1,756, -14,477, -4,129, and +16,510 units, respectively (compared to December 2023).
Profit prediction and investment rating: The company's core technology, new energy three-power system+intelligent software and hardware full-stack layout, smart self promotes high-end independent brands, while the company's export performance continues to be impressive. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 at 134.2/166.2/22.71 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.16/1.44/1.96 yuan, and PE of 13/10/7 times, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy fell short of expectations; and the industry price war exceeded expectations.