The past dividend ability was strong. We've sorted out the company's dividend situation for 2018-2022.
In 2018, the company achieved net profit of 248 million yuan, dividends of 96 million yuan, dividend payment ratio of 38.56%, dividend of 0.20 yuan per share, and dividend ratio of 1.77%;
In 2019, the company achieved net profit of 242 million yuan, dividend of 121 million yuan, dividend payment ratio of 50.07%, dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, and dividend ratio of 1.42%;
In 2020, the company achieved net profit of 87 million yuan, dividend of 121 million yuan, dividend payment ratio of 140.36%, dividend payment rate of 0.25 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 2.16%; in 2021, the company achieved net profit of 210 million yuan to mother without dividends; in 2022, the company achieved net profit of 45 million yuan, dividends of 118 million yuan, dividend payment ratio of 262.85%, dividend rate of 0.23 yuan per share, dividend rate of 1.91%.
In summary, with the exception of no dividends in 2021, the company's annual dividend rate from 2018 to 2022 was over 1.40%, and the dividend capacity is strong.
Dividend rate forecast for '23. Based on the company's dividend data for 2018-2022, we forecast the company's dividend rate for 2023. We expect the company's net profit to be 752 million yuan in 2023. As of February 8, 2024, the company's total share capital is 545 million shares, and the closing price is 21.25 million yuan. Analyze the different dividend payment rates (the following data is calculated using the latest closing price):
If the highest dividend payment rate for 2018-2022 is selected as the reference for 2023, the 2023 dividend payment rate is 262.85%, the corresponding cash dividend is 1,978 billion yuan, the dividend per share is 3.63 yuan, and the dividend rate is 17.08%;
If the minimum dividend payment rate for 2018-2022 is selected as the 2023 reference, there will be no dividends in 2023; if the average dividend payment rate for 2018-2022 is selected, the 2023 dividend payment rate is 98.37%, the corresponding cash dividend is 740 million yuan, the dividend per share is 1.36 yuan, and the dividend rate is 6.36%; if the 2023 dividend payment rate is 50%, the corresponding cash dividend is 376 million yuan, the dividend rate is 0.69 yuan per dividend, and the dividend rate is 3.25%.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company released its 2023 performance forecast. Net profit growth performance was outstanding. It is expected to achieve net profit of 700 million yuan to 800 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 1463.19% to 1686.50% over the previous year. Using the company's dividend situation in 2018-2022 as a reference, taking into account past dividend capacity and excellent performance of net profit returned to mother in 2023, we expect the company's dividend rate to remain at a high level in 2023. We expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit of 7.52/ 989/1,294 million yuan, up 1580.08%/31.46%/30.87% year-on-year respectively, and EPS of 1.38/1.81/2.38 yuan respectively, giving the company 25 times the 2024 PE and a target price of 45.25 yuan, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The dividend situation fell short of expectations.