Key points of investment:
Short-term: Mining accelerates import substitution, leading chemiluminescence companies continue to grow at a high rate. The growth rate of the chemiluminescence industry slowed to 15% in 2017-2021, but high-quality domestic companies such as Antu Biotech are expected to accelerate import substitution and continue to maintain high growth: 1) the profits of import channel providers are further compressed, and the cost advantage of domestic brands is prominent; 2) the brand power and reputation of leading domestic companies have increased rapidly, and they have successfully switched to tertiary hospitals.
Antu Biotech: 1) Strong R&D strength, high self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, and controllable quality costs; 2) Complete reagent menu coverage, high market and clinical approval for infectious disease projects; 3) The marketing channel is well-structured, and the collection volume reflects control.
Mid-term: IVD automation is trending, and Antu's domestic assembly line has a first-mover advantage. According to Kalorama, the hospital density in China is 0.9/100,000 people, far lower than Japan and South Korea (Japan 7, Korea 3.42), which are in the same East Asia, and hospitals bear a greater burden of testing. According to our estimates, the domestic demand for assembly lines reached 10,000+, and as of 2020, the number owned was 2,000, so there is plenty of room for demand. The key to the assembly line is not the line body, but the abundance and quality of the reagents. The Antu biological testing project is complete and reliable. It has built the first domestically produced fully automatic assembly line. It has a first-mover advantage, leading domestic installation, and a strategic card position.
Long-term: Set a platform-based benchmark and expand multiple fields of molecular microbiology horizontally. The company's layout expanded horizontally, setting a benchmark for IVD domestic platforms. The company's molecular diagnostics are expected to relay the center of increased chemiluminescence growth.
Antu Biotech's automated nucleic acid testing system has experienced increased maturity in the pandemic, and is expected to lead the growth of the sector in line with the expansion of the reagent menu. In addition, the company's forward-looking microbial mass spectrometry layout is based on developing high-end users locally. Radiation drives the company's brand strength in all fields of IVD, and the future can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's EPS in 2023-2025 to be 2.2/2.6/3.2 yuan, corresponding PE is 25/21/17 times, and the valuation is lower than the comparable company average. Antu Biotech is a pioneer in domestic IVD. It gave the company 27 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 70.61 yuan in 2024. It covered the first time, and gave the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, risk of new product development and promotion falling short of expectations, risk associated with registration and certification.