The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that maintaining the “outperforming industry” rating of Wynn Macau (01128), the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2024 remains unchanged, and the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 was raised 1% to US$8.491 billion, mainly considering a faster than expected recovery in performance and an increase in profit margins, with a target price of HK$9.5.

The report quoted Wynn Macau's 4Q23 results: net revenue was US$911 million, up 379% year on year, up 11% month on month, and recovered to 82% in 4Q19. The adjusted property EBITDA was US$297 million, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and recovered to 85% in 4Q19, exceeding the agency's unanimous expectations of US$281 million. The bank believes that Wynn Macau's performance was due to: 1) Driven by high-end midfielders, Midfielder's recovery to 117% of 4Q19; 2) after the renovation of Wynn Macau (Peninsula Property), Midfielder's market share increased; 3) EBITDA profit margin increased, benefiting from an increase in the share of midfield businesses with higher profit margins and a decrease in operating costs compared to the same period in 2019.

The main points of the management's public performance meeting are as follows: 1) In January 2024, improved revenue structure, strong revenue growth and continued cost control continued to drive up EBITDA profit margins; 2) The high-end midfield business continued to drive recovery, while ordinary midfielders began to show signs of further recovery in 4Q23, benefiting from short-term passenger traffic improvements (the improvement continued until January 2024); 3) Management believes that retail tenant sales continue to perform well. The retail industry in Macau, China has become an alternative to Hong Kong, China; 4) The company expects total capital expenditure in 2024 and 2025 Between US$350 million and US$500 million; 5) The company expects average daily fixed operating costs to remain at around US$2.6 million (down 14% from 2019 levels).