Source: Wind
The “hottest in history” Spring Festival holiday has come to an end.
The willingness of urban and rural residents to travel during the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon soared, and many indicators such as the number of travelers and total travel expenses reached record highs.
Many institutions at home and abroad believe that the Chinese economy will recover smoothly in 2024. As employment and income expectations improve, consumption will become the biggest engine of China's economic growth. As far as A-shares are concerned, various industries such as retail, restaurants, cinemas, and tourism are expected to be boosted.
Tourist travel expenses increased 47% year over year
According to data from the Ministry of Transport, as of February 16 (the 7th day of the first month, the 22nd day of the Spring Festival travel season), the number of people moving across regions during the 2024 Spring Festival travel season was about 5.1 billion, an increase of 14.1% over the previous year, and an increase of 12.9% over the same period in 2019.
In particular, the scale of movement of people around the Spring Festival holiday increased dramatically. On February 8-16 (July 29 to the beginning of the first month), the number of people moving across regions of society increased 19.5% year-on-year and 26.4% over the same period in 2019, and residents' enthusiasm for travel was high.
The Ministry of Culture and Tourism released national travel data for the 2024 Spring Festival holiday on February 18.
According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's data center, there were 474 million domestic travel trips during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday, up 34.3% year on year, up 19.0% from the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards; the total travel expenses of domestic tourists were 632,687 billion yuan, up 47.3% year on year, up 7.7% from the same period in 2019 according to comparable caliber; there were about 6.83 million inbound and outbound tours, including about 3.6 million outbound trips and 3.23 million inbound trips.
According to preliminary statistics, about 150,000 mass cultural events such as the “Village Night”, the “Village Night”, the New Year painting event, and the New Year in the library were held, and about 669 million people participated online and offline. The number of commercial performances nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday was 16,300, up 52.10% year on year; box office revenue was 778 million yuan, up 80.09% year on year; the number of spectators was 6.576,500, up 77.71% year on year.
Based on data from many travel platforms, the 2024 Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon became the most popular Spring Festival travel holiday in history. Domestic, outbound, and inbound travel orders all increased dramatically year-on-year, exceeding the same period in 2019.
According to Tongcheng Travel's “2024 Spring Festival Holiday Travel Consumption Report”, the combined demand for the Spring Festival holiday, family visits and leisure vacations has sparked a new wave of cultural tourism consumption. Not only have traditional popular destinations welcomed a large number of tourists, but travel consumption in many niche domestic destinations has also soared.
Ctrip's “2024 Dragon Year Spring Festival Travel Report” shows that during the Spring Festival holiday, cultural tourism consumption soared and became the main driving force for consumer spending. Among them, domestic travel, outbound travel, and inbound tourism have all blossomed significantly, and surpassed the same period in 2019; ticket orders for domestic scenic spots increased by more than 60% year on year, and ticket orders for overseas scenic spots increased by more than 130% compared to 2019; there is a clear trend of upgrading travel consumption. The average price of tickets and amusement orders doubled year on year, and the per capita price of customized tourists increased 20% year on year.
According to Flying Pig's “2024 Spring Festival Holiday Travel Report”, the Spring Festival in the year of Jiachenlong became the most popular Spring Festival travel holiday in history. The number of domestic travel bookings has greatly surpassed the same period in 2019. Among them, medium- and long-term travel has surged more than 3 times compared to last year, and the average travel dates for free travel have increased 30% compared to last year. Outbound travel peaked in nearly 4 years, with bookings surging 10 times compared to last year. More than half of popular overseas destinations have surpassed the same period in 2019.
According to China Unicom's Smart Footprint big data, the number of visitors to key cultural tourism attractions in the country reached 123 million, an increase of 22.8% over the previous year. Cities such as Chongqing, Wuhan, Xi'an, Beijing, and Kaifeng are currently popular cultural tourism destinations.
Food and beverage consumption increased 36% year over year
During the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, the vitality of online and offline consumption such as catering, travel and lodging, leisure and entertainment continued to unleash, ushering in a “good start” for the consumer market in the Year of the Dragon.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the New Year Festival from January 18 to February 6, online retail sales were close to 800 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year in the lunar calendar, achieving a “good start” for online consumption in 2024. According to data from the China Chamber of Commerce, China's retail sentiment index was 51.2% in February, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
According to WeChat and Tongcheng Travel's “New Ideas” on Spring Festival Consumption in the Year of the Dragon, orders for food and wine travel mini-programs increased the fastest during the 2024 Lunar New Year holiday, with year-on-year increases of 36% and 19%, respectively.
On February 18, Douyin Life Service's “2024 Spring Festival Consumption Data Report” showed that from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year (February 9 to February 15), the average daily consumption scale of the food, drink and play industry increased by 153% year-on-year. Among them, food orders increased 99% year over year, and orders related to travel, accommodation and leisure and entertainment increased 130% and 119% year over year.
Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu rank in the top three in terms of consumption in the country. Returning home for the Lunar New Year revitalized the small town economy, and spending in third-tier cities and below increased 1.87 times over the same period last year. Consumption in third-tier cities and below has increased rapidly. 3.19 million people have returned to their hometowns to explore stores, bringing economic revenue of 1,185 billion yuan to their hometowns.
According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, during the 2024 Spring Festival, department stores, supermarkets, specialty stores, restaurants and e-commerce businesses monitored by the Bureau of Commerce achieved sales of 7.74 billion yuan, an increase of 36.8% over the previous year, and an increase of 64.1% over 2019.
The Spring Festival box office reached a record high
In addition to shopping and shopping, going to the cinema is also an important way to relax during the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival box office record has once again been broken.
According to Cat's Eye Pro, as of 22:25 on the 17th, the total box office of the Spring Festival program had surpassed 8.043 billion yuan, surpassing the previous record of 7.842 billion yuan for the 2021 Spring Festival program; the total number of movie viewers reached 164 million, with a total number of shows of 39.41 million, setting a new record for the total number of viewers and shows of the Spring Festival program in Chinese film history.
The top 4 box-office films were “Hot and Hot” for 2,771 billion yuan, “Flying for Life 2” for 2,444 billion yuan, “Bears Hound: Reversing Time and Space” for 1,420 million yuan, and “Article 20” for 1,362 billion yuan.
According to CCTV news reports, as of 9:30 on February 18, the total box office for 2024 had reached 11.081 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 96.75% of the box office.
Chinese and foreign institutions are optimistic about China's economic trends in 2024
CICC said that this year's eight-day Spring Festival holiday and the release of demand for returning home or travel during the Spring Festival this year, which was disrupted by the epidemic last year, all provided some support for total consumption during this year's holiday season. It is worth noting that in the past year, consumption data has shown a divergence between holiday consumption and lackluster overall consumption. This differentiation may be related to the asymmetric recovery of consumption after the epidemic. It also reflects that in the context of insufficient effective demand, consumer consumption may choose to be released centrally during the holiday window. Whether consumption can continue to improve in the future still depends on the restoration of dynamic energy within the economy, and we need to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of steady growth policies.
Li Xunlei, chief economist at Zhongtai Securities, pointed out in the latest research report that macroeconomic fundamentals will continue to improve. Recent economic data are generally better than expected, and financial “real money” support is stable. Market institutions predict that the real estate market has passed a three-year adjustment period, local debt risks have also been steadily resolved, and negative spillover effects have generally been reduced. The GDP growth rate in 2024 is expected to move closer to the potential economic growth rate, which has clearly rebounded from the average economic growth rate of 4% in the past two years.
Ding Shuang, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank for Greater China and North Asia, said that as employment and income expectations improve, consumption should continue to be the biggest engine of economic growth. China's annual GDP is forecast to grow by 4.8%, and inflation has returned but is still significantly below the 3% target. The Chinese economy recovered moderately in 2023. At the same time, the recovery has not yet been completed, and the output level is still clearly below the trend level.
Lu Ting, China's chief economist at Nomura, recently pointed out that in 2024, the Chinese economy contains hope in the midst of challenges. The real estate market may usher in an opportunity to start clearing out this year. The key to clearing up is to guarantee delivery. It is difficult to rely on commercial banks, local governments, and developers to complete it; instead, it requires the central government to promote monetary policy through quantitative easing. The China-US dollar spread narrowed in 2024, and the pressure to depreciate the exchange rate decreased, so the central government has more room to introduce relevant policies.
Zhao Wei, chief economist at Guojin Securities, said that China's economy will recover smoothly. Major overseas economies will eventually have to “hand over” inflation, and it may be clear in 2024 how the economy will “land” in the process of speeding up the search for a “new steady state.” This year, domestic fiscal policy is shifting from “energy storage” to “strength,” and the power of “cycle” is conducive to continued economic recovery after the epidemic.
What will the trend of A-shares be after the holiday season?
According to a research report released by Dongwu Securities, 2024 is the starting point for a new round of A-share bull markets. Core assets are expected to undergo valuation restoration, and growth styles will rise. On the one hand, the current decline in core assets has exceeded the decline based on fundamentals. Odds trading on core assets is clearly attractive, and valuations are expected to recover. The mitigation of liquidity risk catalyzed by capital market policies is expected to positively map fundamentals/expectations and protect core asset valuations; in the future, the trend decline in US debt and domestic policy strength will drive the nominal growth gap between China and the US to narrow, and expectations of a recovery in fundamentals are expected to increase accordingly, thus driving core asset valuation repair. On the other hand, changes in US bond yields have had a significant impact on the A-share style. The decline in US bond interest rates will favor the A-share growth style, while the micro market and high dividend style, which had previously been relatively dominant, will be relatively weak.
Zheshang Securities said that the Spring Festival sales trend is improving, differentiation intensifies the strength, and continues to emphasize current bottom allocation opportunities; food is currently focusing on overseas marketing+New Year's goods marketing+high dividend allocation opportunities. In 2024, mass products will continue to gradually pick up, and current sector valuations are cost-effective.
Everbright Securities said that looking ahead to 2024, it is still the most optimistic about gold jewelry, especially the gold jewelry industry. In addition, they are also relatively optimistic about the sportswear industry, leisure sports-related industries, and the outlet business. In terms of e-commerce in Hong Kong stocks, this sector still has some trading opportunities in the short term. Recommended attention: Lao Fengxiang, Chaohongji, Caibai Co., Ltd., Wangfujing, Bailian Co., Ltd., Chongqing Department Store, Hongqi Chain, Pinduoduo, Meituan-W.
Editor/Jeffy