Core views
On February 7, the company issued an announcement: After full negotiations, the company and Jilin Guoxing New Materials Industry Investment Co., Ltd. signed a “Entrusted Operation and Management Agreement” to entrust Guoxing New Materials to operate and manage Jilin Guoxing Composite Materials Co., Ltd., and the two parties will charge escrow fees on an annual basis (January 1 to December 31): The escrow fee is 1 million yuan per year. The company will complete the commissioned management matters as agreed in the agreement, continuously improve the management level, and create greater profit efficiency.
On January 30, the company released a performance forecast: net profit is expected to be 24 million yuan to 35 million yuan in 2023, up 126.24% to 138.27% year on year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is 5.6 million yuan to 16.6 million yuan, up 117.74% to 152.60% year on year.
occurrences
On February 7, the company issued an announcement: After full negotiations, the company and Jilin Guoxing New Materials Industry Investment Co., Ltd. signed a “Entrusted Operation and Management Agreement” to entrust Guoxing New Materials to operate and manage Jilin Guoxing Composite Materials Co., Ltd., and the two parties will charge escrow fees on an annual basis (January 1 to December 31): The escrow fee is 1 million yuan per year. The company will complete the commissioned management matters as agreed in the agreement, continuously improve the management level, and create greater profit efficiency.
Brief review
Commissioned to operate Guoxing Composites Company to promote joint development. On February 7, the company issued an announcement. After thorough negotiations with Jilin Guoxing New Materials Industry Investment Co., Ltd., the two parties signed a “Entrusted Operation and Management Agreement” to charge escrow fees on an annual basis (January 1 to December 31): The escrow fee is 1 million yuan per year.
The company will complete the commissioned management matters as agreed in the agreement, continuously improve the management level, and create greater profit efficiency.
The actual controller of Guoxing New Materials is the Jilin State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission; the target company of this agreement, Guoxing Composites, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guoxing New Materials, which specializes in the manufacture and sale of synthetic materials, and the manufacture and sale of high-performance fibers and composites. Jilin Chemical Fiber is entrusted to operate Guoxing Composites, which will be highly coordinated with the company's existing carbon fiber business, which is conducive to better industrial linkage and common development.
2023 is expected to reverse losses year on year, and overall performance will improve
On January 30, the company released its 2023 performance forecast. Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 24 million yuan to 35 million yuan, up 126.24% to 138.27% year on year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is 5.6 million yuan to 16.6 million yuan, an increase of 117.74% to 152.60% year on year. The company's profit in 2023 increased compared to the same period, mainly due to a recovery in the filament market and a year-on-year increase in sales prices; at the same time, the prices of raw materials and energy declined this year, and costs decreased compared to the same period. Two factors affected the increase in product gross profit and the company's performance.
Profit forecast and valuation: The company's net profit for 2023, 2024, and 2025 is expected to be 0.3 billion yuan, 130 million and 210 million yuan, respectively, EPS 0.01 yuan, 0.05 yuan and 0.09 yuan, respectively, and PE is 204X, 51X, and 31X respectively. The company's profit is under pressure in the short term. There is plenty of room for improvement in carbon fiber demand in the long run. Through industrial integration and upstream and downstream collaboration, the company will gradually benefit as industry profits stabilize and demand increases, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk analysis
(1) Cyclical risk in the industry: The chemical fiber industry has strong cyclical characteristics. Fluctuations in the global macroeconomic economy, especially in the textile industry, falling market demand or the industry facing cyclical adjustments, will directly cause a decline in demand in the chemical fiber market, which in turn will have a significant adverse impact on the company's sales and net profit;
(2) Business risk: Global raw material prices fluctuate greatly, and the impact of the market downturn still exists. Demand has not exploded, and the same industry has a certain inventory. Price repair and transmission still need to be observed, which will have a certain impact on the company's next performance; (3) Industrial transformation risks: complex carbon fiber processes, high R&D investment, and long R&D and industrialization cycles make it possible to count companies with real R&D and production capabilities internationally. Compared with advanced foreign carbon fiber producers, domestic carbon fiber industrialization technicians, production processes and equipment There is a gap between devices and international standards. There is a certain risk of developing new products, and due to increased market competition, there is also a risk that domestic downstream carbon fiber product application growth will fall short of expectations.