Recommended logic: 1) The core product Rida Xian relies on the GTP model, and sales continue to rise; 2) potential pipelines, including Elasqun, Vaborem, and RRX-001, are expected to gradually be implemented to inject momentum into the company for continuous development; 3) Strengthen the product pipeline through the License in model.

The GTP model promoted the continued release of Ridaxen, with revenue reaching 1.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2023. Through the GTP model, Ridaxian continued to sell, with revenue of 2.17 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.33 billion yuan (+13.1%) in the first half of 2023. Ridaxian's continuous sales volume stems from the GTP platform. As of the end of December 2022, sales through the GTP model accounted for over 72% of Ridaxian's total sales.

Alasetran is an oral SERD FIC drug. The efficacy is significantly superior to fluvirizin in HR+/HER2 breast cancer with ESR1 mutations. Alasitran is the only oral SERD drug approved for marketing in the world.

On November 7, 2023, Sai Sheng Pharmaceutical and Menarini Group reached an exclusive license and cooperation agreement for Elasqun to obtain the right to develop and commercialize Elasqun in China. Alasitran is significantly superior to fluvirizin in HR+/HER2 breast cancer with ESR1 mutations. Saisheng Pharmaceutical is expected to submit a marketing application for Elasitran in 2025.

Focusing on the big market, the pipeline is expected to gradually be implemented in the later stages. CRE infection is a major global public health threat, and treatments are clearly lacking. Vaborem is expected to be the drug of choice for empirical treatment and is expected to be approved for marketing in 2025. rRx-001 is a small molecule drug with multiple anti-tumor mechanisms including immune response. It refers to terminal small cell lung cancer, and will be approved for marketing from 2025 to 2026 as soon as possible.

Profit forecast: With the continuous expansion of Ridaxian and the gradual implementation of the pipeline in the later stages, we expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 31.53 billion yuan, and 4 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, 11.7 billion yuan and 1.36 billion yuan.

Risk warning: R&D falls short of expected risks, commercialization falls short of expected risks, market competition increases risks, and drug price reduction risks.