The company announced FY24Q3 (23Q4 calendar year) results. Revenue increased 5.1% year on year to 26.35 billion yuan, and adjusted EBITA was 52.84 billion yuan, up 1.5% year on year. According to the FY24Q3 results conference, the company will actively invest in the two core businesses of e-commerce and cloud computing in 2024.
Taotian Group: FY24Q3 Taotian Group achieved a 1.6% year-on-year increase in revenue to 129.07 billion yuan.
According to the FY24Q3 results conference, the number of online GMV, quarterly transaction buyers and order volume all increased, and the number of platform merchants achieved double-digit year-on-year growth.
Cloud Intelligence Group: FY24Q3 Cloud Intelligence Group achieved a 2.6% year-on-year increase in revenue to 28.07 billion yuan, and achieved an adjusted EBITA increase of 86.3% year-on-year to 2.36 billion yuan. The main reason was that the company took the initiative to increase the share of public cloud revenue, reduce project-based revenue, and optimize the sales and service system.
International Commerce: FY24Q3 International Business achieved a 43.8% year-on-year increase in revenue to 28.52 billion yuan, with international retail revenue increasing 55.5% year-on-year to 23.26 billion yuan, mainly due to the newly launched AChoice model driving a 60% year-on-year increase in AliExpress orders (accounting for nearly half of orders under the Choice model in January 24). In the future, Choice will further increase the penetration rate.
Share repurchase: According to the FY24Q3 financial report, the company announced an increase of 25 billion US dollars in the repurchase plan, which is valid until the end of March 2027, and the share repurchase amount is US$35.3 billion over the next three years.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit for FY2023-2025 is estimated to be RMB 1604/1715/188.4 billion, respectively. Based on SOTP, FY2024 Chinese commercial profits are valued at 6X PE, and cloud computing revenue is valued at 3X PS, corresponding to the reasonable value of US stocks of 99.35 US dollars/ADS and 97.14 HKD/share of Hong Kong stocks, all maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Increased competition in the industry has slowed user growth; the macroeconomic environment and consumer sentiment have weakened, and ARPU increases have slowed; the escalation of the industry price war has affected the increase in the company's gross profit level, etc.