Introduction to this report:
The company released operating data for January. The decline in sales amount was less than that of the TOP50 real estate companies, showing resilience; no new land reserves were added, which is consistent with the slow pace of land acquisition investment by core housing enterprises.
Summary:
The company released monthly operating data. The contract sales amount fell 9% year on year. The decline was less than that of the TOP50 real estate companies. Sales resilience was still prominent, and the rating of increasing holdings was maintained. According to Kerui data, in January 2024, the full-caliber sales amount of TOP50 housing enterprises fell 36% year on year, while the company's monthly contract sales amount fell only 9%, a relatively small decline, continuing its strong competitiveness in the middle and high-end sectors of low-energy cities. Maintain the company's 2023-2025 performance growth rate of -6.7%, -5.8%, and 5.5%, maintain the 2023-2025 EPS of 0.83 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.82 yuan, and maintain the company's holdings increase rating.
The sales area in January was 5% higher than in December 2023. In an environment where the industry is in a low sales season, the performance was outstanding. In January 2024, the company's contract sales area was 210,000 square meters, and the contract sales amount was 2.4 billion yuan (RMB, same below), down 8% and 9% year-on-year respectively. The declines were 37 pcts and 32 pcts narrower than in December 2023, respectively. At the same time, although January was a low sales season, the sales area increased 5% month-on-month, so overall, there was a marginal improvement in sales. Furthermore, as of the end of January 2024, the company's cumulative unsubscribed amount was 900 million yuan, and the unsubscribed area was 70,000 square meters.
The company did not add new land reserves in January, which is basically consistent with the company's past land acquisition pace and the land acquisition situation of core housing enterprises in January. The pace of land acquisition investment by core housing enterprises generally slowed down in January, and looking back at the company's land acquisition performance in the past 5 years, with the exception of 2021, the scale of land acquisition by the company in January and February was generally small. The intensity and layout of the company's investment and land acquisition will continue to be tracked in the future.
Focusing on the middle and high-end market, the average sales price in January was 11,167 yuan/square meter, down 8% from the average price for the full year of 2023. Expectations have a certain relationship with the market situation. In January 2024, the average sales price fell 1% year on year, and was lower than the cumulative average price of 2023. Considering that housing companies' sales situation had a big impact on the average monthly price, it is necessary to continue to observe the performance of the company's average sales price in order to reasonably evaluate the housing price trend in the low-energy cities that the company focuses on.
Risk warning: Housing prices and demand continue to decline sharply, and the market competition pattern worsened as other brands of central enterprises entered the low-energy market.