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永泰运(001228):韬光养晦 顺势而为 看好危化品出口运输龙头

Yongtai Transport (001228): Keep an eye on the trend and be optimistic about the leading export and transportation leader of hazardous chemicals

海通證券 ·  Feb 9

Deeply involved in cross-border chemical logistics, and the full chain layout has borne fruit. Yongtaiyun is an enterprise specializing in cross-border chemical logistics supply chain services. Relying on the self-developed “Yunchemical” smart supply chain service platform, the company presents and visualizes the entire chain of cross-border chemical supply chain services in a one-stop manner, and has achieved vertical integration with international chemical logistics service teams, hazardous chemical warehouses, hazardous chemical transport fleets, and park-based integrated logistics service bases. The company's business is mainly concentrated in Ningbo Port, Shanghai Port, Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port and other regions. Good port location advantages provide the company with a huge customer base and abundant supply base.

The development of hazardous chemical logistics is accelerating, and stricter policies are driving up the concentration of the industry. As the world's largest chemical market, China's import and export trade volume of chemical products has remained high in recent years. The booming development of the chemical industry has directly spawned the business demand for services provided by the chemical logistics industry, especially professional chemical supply chain logistics service providers. At the same time, with the global integration of the economy and industry, there is still broad room for development in the cross-border supply chain management market. In the context of continuous strengthening of safety supervision and environmental protection policies, and the chemical industry “leaving the city and entering the park,” small and unregulated hazardous logistics companies are being eliminated at an accelerated pace. At the same time, logistics enterprises with complete qualifications and standardized management can take advantage of economies of scale, take advantage of timely, safe, and low-cost comprehensive advantages in network coverage and capacity allocation, achieve business integration and scale through mergers and acquisitions, and further increase market share.

Strong acquisitions are rich in own resources, and the location effect supports scale expansion. The company continuously integrates high-quality offline logistics service resources. It has more than 500,000 square meters of scarce land resources with superior geographical location, convenient transportation conditions, and meets cross-border logistics requirements, and is equipped with more than 200 specialized hazardous chemical transport vehicles at different bases, forming a national development pattern with the Yangtze River Delta region as the core base, covering major domestic chemical industry clusters in East China, North China, and Central China. While the company's own resources are abundant, its “chemical operation” platform makes more full use and allocation of resources, making internal management intelligent. The company has an accurate strategic layout and relies on nearby ports and chemical parks to continuously develop its regional advantages and further expand its customer base. The company's fund-raising projects are also being put into operation one after another. In the future, it will continue to enhance its warehousing and capacity levels and enhance business synergy.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We estimate that the company's 2023-2025 EPS will be 1.75/2.43/2.98 yuan, respectively, based on comparable company valuations, and considering the company's advantages such as continuous expansion, abundant own resources, obvious location effects, increased number of customers, and increased competitiveness, the overall growth and profitability of fund-raising projects are better than those of peer companies, giving the company 2024E 16x-18x PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 38.83-43.68 yuan. The first coverage gave it an “better than the market” rating.

Risk warning: Risks such as safe operation risks, declining prosperity in the downstream chemical industry, vicious market competition, and a sharp drop in shipping freight rates.

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