Event Overview: The company released a production and sales report for January 2024: wholesale sales volume in a single month was 245,000 vehicles, +2.9% year over year, and -61.5% month over month.
SAIC-Volkswagen wholesale 95,000 vehicles in January, +32.0% year over month; SAIC-GM sold 36,000 units in January, -34.5% year on year, -65.6% month on month; SAIC-GM passenger cars sold 51 thousand units in January, -9.2% year on month, -63.0% month on month; SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 35,000 units in January, +16.7% year over month, -82.6% month on month.
Retail performance was good in January, and the public's performance was strong. The company wholesale 245,000 vehicles in January 2024, +2.9% year on year; 450,000 units on the retail side, up nearly 50% year on year; on the structural side, sales of new energy vehicles in January were 64,000 units, +66.7% year over year, -70.7% month on month; retail sales exceeded 90,000 units, double year on year. We judge that the decline in wholesale sales was mainly affected by the early addition of stocks at the end of the year. By brand, the joint venture brand SAIC Volkswagen sold 95,000 vehicles in January, +32.0% year over year and -33.4% month on month. The performance was quite strong.
Wuling Starlight and Roewe DMH showed outstanding autonomy, and the joint venture was fully electrified. On October 12, 2023, the Zhiji LS6 was launched at a price of 214,900 to 276,900 yuan. All new cars are equipped with ORiNx high-computing power chips, ultra-long-range high-precision lidar, and the smart IM AD smart driving system. In November, December 2023/2024, the smart car achieved sales volume of 8,158/10,412/5,001 units, showing strong demand. Subsequent steady state sales are expected to approach 10,000 units; in January 2024, the sales volume of the Roewe D7 DMH reached a new level of 6,000 units. Ranked in the top 3 of the monthly sales list for mid-size hybrid cars; Wuling Starlight sold 1,0005 units, continuously becoming the TOP2 in China's 150,000 plug-in hybrid car market; SAIC Volkswagen ID. Family continued to sell more than 10,000 units in a single month; SAIC-GM delivered more than 7,000 new energy vehicles, maintaining rapid year-on-year growth, and autonomous and joint ventures comprehensively accelerated the electrification transformation.
It continues to be popular overseas. Global ocean and sky. Overseas sales reached 1.208 million units in 2023, +18.8% over the same period. The growth trend is good. It continues to be a strong leader among domestic car companies. Among them, independent brands account for 92%, new energy accounts for 24%, and MG4 EV sales exceed 100,000 units in Europe. In January 2024, overseas sales reached 64,000 units, -16.2% year-on-year and -54.6% month-on-month, which declined due to overseas capacity; however, retail sales in the overseas market exceeded 80,000 units in January, an increase of more than 20% over the previous year. On the afternoon of July 4, 2023, SAIC Motor Group announced that it plans to establish a vehicle factory in Europe. Subsequently, SAIC Motor will launch 14 new smart electric “global vehicles” in overseas markets, further expanding the overseas product matrix, which is expected to further improve overseas sales.
Investment advice: The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platformization capabilities, and more clear autonomous growth. It is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of autonomous and joint venture two-wheel drive and maintain profit forecasts. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 7,750/7,953/819 billion yuan, net profit to mother is 152.33/170.19/18.327 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.32/1.47/1.58 yuan, corresponding to February 8, 2024 The closing price of yuan/share, PE was 11/10/9 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: downside risk in the car market; downside risk of joint venture brands; launch of new electric smart models falling short of expectations; overseas expansion falling short of expectations.