The company is the only listed highway company in Jiangxi Province, with a mileage of nearly 800 kilometers on the main road production line. The company's core production location is superior, and the remaining charging period is long. The current payout ratio is low, and there is room and possibility for further improvement.
The only highway listed company in Jiangxi Province. Ganyue Expressway is the only highway listed company in Jiangxi Province. Since its listing, the highway mileage managed by the company has crossed from 138 kilometers to nearly 800 kilometers.
The company's main business is vehicle traffic services, smart transportation, refined oil products and real estate, of which vehicle traffic services account for more than 50% of revenue. The company's historical revenue has grown steadily, from 4,507 billion yuan in 2018 to 6.758 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 10.7%. In 2023, along with a recovery in traffic, the company's performance quickly recovered. According to the company's performance report, it is expected to achieve net profit of 1,171 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 68.3% over the previous year, and an increase of 5.2% over 2019.
We undertake high-quality road products from the north to south and the middle and west, and the remaining charging period is long. The company's core road products are all located in the middle of the national road network connecting North and South China, and the main framework of the Jiangxi Expressway Network. They have many important regional corridors connecting the provincial capital, Nanchang, and major cities in the province, and are mostly distributed in economically developed regions and tourist hotspots in the province, with excellent geographical locations. As of 2023H1, the Changjiu Expressway and Changzhang Expressway have completed the “four changes to eight” expansion, and they have all been successfully approved to re-approve the toll period. The Changjiu Expressway toll end date is September 2049, and the Changzhang Expressway is in March 2044; the Changtai Expressway Zhangji section renovation and expansion project and the second phase of the Changzhang Expressway renovation and expansion project are under construction. Among them, the company's core road, the Changjiu Expressway, ushered in a marked increase in revenue and gross margin after the renovation and expansion was completed; the gross margin of the company's vehicle traffic business rose from 48.2% in 2018 to 59.6% in 2023H1.
The performance is expected to maintain long-term steady growth, and there is room for further improvement in dividend payout rates. We expect the company's net profit to be 1.30/1.38 billion yuan in 2024-25, respectively. The company's historical dividend payout rate is basically in the range of 30-40%, which is lower than the average of listed peers (about 50%). From a valuation perspective: Based on our profit forecast, the company's current stock price is 7.3 times the 2024 P/E and 0.5 times the 2024 P/B, which is a low valuation level. We believe that the company: 1) The core road production location is excellent, and traffic volume is expected to maintain long-term steady growth for a long time; 2) The current dividend payout ratio is low, and there is room and possibility for further improvement. For the first time, the coverage company gave it a “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Traffic growth falls short of expectations; progress of renovation and expansion falls short of expectations.