The three major US stock indexes rebounded for the second day in a row. The energy sector led the rise of S&P by 2.5%. The small-cap stock index closed up more than 2%, outperforming the market for two days. Among the “Seven Sisters” of technology, only Meta and Tesla did not fall. Tesla rose more than 6%, Meta rose more than 2% to a record high, and Nvidia fell more than 1%, falling to a record high in closing history. After the earnings report, Cisco fell more than 2%, leading the decline among the Dow's constituent stocks. After Nvidia disclosed its holdings in the fourth quarter, Nano-X closed up nearly 50%, reflecting half of the increase at the beginning of the market. AI company SOUN, which had risen 80% at the beginning of the market, rose nearly 67%, and the AI concept stock ultra-microcomputer rose 14% and hit a record high on the 9th. Arm closed up nearly 6%, and turned down during the intraday period. China's stock index rose nearly 1%, outperforming the market over the past few days. Pinduoduo rose more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motor rose nearly 2%.
After the retail sales data was released, the two-year US Treasury yield first hit a new low, falling 8 basis points, and then leveled off all declines and then rose; the US dollar index hit a new low. The offshore renminbi rose more than 100 points in the intraday period and recovered by 7.22.
Crude oil rebounded, and US oil rose nearly 2% to a three-month high. US natural gas hit a new low for more than three years on the 7th. Gold stopped five consecutive declines and bid farewell to its two-month low. Lunzinc rose nearly 2%, and Luntong rebounded to a one-week high.
Economic data released on Thursday were mixed: retail sales in the US fell 0.8% month-on-month in January, the biggest drop in nearly a year, about four times what analysts expected, showing that after the year-end holiday shopping season, US retail sales slowed beyond expectations, causing the market to pick up expectations for interest rate cuts; while in February, the confidence index of US homebuilders surpassed expectations and hit a six-month high. Last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US did not increase but fell, reflecting economic resilience.
After the retail data was released, the swap agreement showed that investor pricing fully reflected the Fed's interest rate cut in June this year. The price of US Treasury bonds first rose and then fell, and the yield declined somewhat and then narrowed. The review said that digesting mixed data makes it difficult for the bond market to find a solid foundation. Currently, investors are waiting for PPI announced on Friday and consumer inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey, hoping to find clues to judge the Fed's interest rate path.
While US bond yields are falling, major US stock indexes almost failed to maintain their rebound momentum in the intraday period. As technology stocks, which are the main upside drivers of US stocks, partially fell this year, the NASDAQ index fell in early trading. Among the tech giants “Seven Sisters,” only Meta and Tesla rose, chip stocks turned down in the middle of the day, and Nvidia fell to an all-time high in closing. Cisco, which had poor performance guidance, performed the worst among the Dow's constituents. Meanwhile, energy stocks took over technology stocks and became market leaders, and small-cap stocks and Chinese securities continued to outperform the market.
Meanwhile, Nvidia's first disclosure of quarterly holdings showed that its quarterly holdings soared in the fourth quarter: medical imaging technology company Nano-X Imaging doubled, voice artificial intelligence (AI) technology company SoundHound AI rose 80%, and another AI concept stock, ultra-microcomputer (SMCI), rose more than 10%. Last week's earnings report showed that chip design giant Arm, which benefited from the AI boom, rose 6%.
The UK announced that GDP growth for the fourth quarter contracted for two consecutive quarters, falling into a technical recession, causing investors to increase their bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cut this year. ECB President Lagarde said that recent economic data suggests that inflation in the Eurozone is declining towards the central bank's target as expected by the central bank. The review said that because there are relatively few signs that inflation continues to be high in the Eurozone, the ECB has more room to cut interest rates than the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. However, European treasury yields failed to continue to decline. British bond yields were low on a new day when the UK GDP was announced, and gradually rose after the US economic data was released.
On the foreign exchange market side, after the US retail data was released, the US dollar index reached a new low. It continued to fall from the three-month high it had set before turning down on Wednesday. Non-US currencies generally rose, and the yen recovered from the 150 mark. Bitcoin's intraday estimate of $52,700 continued to hit a new high of more than two years. US stocks took back most of their intraday gains and fell by 52,000 US dollars, falling more than 1,000 US dollars from the intraday high.
A variety of commodities rose, supported by the downturn in the US dollar. Gold futures, which had been falling for a week, reversed the decline and bid farewell to a two-month low. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year, international crude oil continued to rise in the intraday period. After US retail data was released, as the dollar's decline widened and oil prices rebounded at an accelerated pace. US oil closed higher on the 8th of the last nine trading days, rising to a three-month high. According to some commentators, no one believes the IEA's pessimistic predictions and is more inclined to the optimistic outlook presented in the OPEC monthly report earlier this week. When the overall stock market is so positive and the tension in the Middle East has not abated, it is difficult for analysts to put forward a reason to short oil.
The NASDAQ declined in early trading, and the energy sector led the rise in the S&P small-cap stock index and the China General Stock Index outperformed the market over the past few days
The three major US stock indexes failed to collectively open higher, and their intraday performance was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened slightly lower, maintained its upward trend after rapidly rising, and the increase extended above 300 points in midday trading. The high-opening S&P 500 index remained above 5,000 points. It turned down in the short term in early trading and continued to rise in midday trading, rising more than 0.6% when it hit a new high. The high-opening Nasdaq Composite Index rose nearly 0.2% at the beginning of the session, then quickly turned down. It fell 0.5% in early trading and turned up in midday trading.
In the end, the three major indices all rose for two consecutive days after the sharp fall on Tuesday, but they have not been able to smooth out all the declines since the CPI was announced on Tuesday. The Dow, which fell nearly 1.4% on Tuesday, the biggest drop since March 9 last year, closed up 348.85 points, or 0.91%, to 38773.12 points. S&P closed down nearly 1.4% on Tuesday, the biggest drop on the CPI release date since September 2022, up 0.58% to 5029.73 points. The NASDAQ closed down 1.8% on Tuesday, the biggest drop since January 31, and closed up 0.3% to 15906.17 points.
The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed up 2.45%, outperforming the market for two consecutive days, and rebounded for two consecutive days after falling nearly 4% on Tuesday to the biggest decline since June 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index closed up 0.21% and rebounded for two days after falling to a low level since February 6. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the NASDAQ 100 index, fell nearly 1% in early trading, closed down 0.43%. After rebounding nearly 1.5% on Wednesday, it fell back, and then began to fall back from the historical closing level refreshed last Friday.
Among the constituent stocks of the Dow Index, only five closed down on Thursday. Cisco, which announced financial reports, had the biggest decline. Microsoft, Apple, Intel, and Nike all fell less than 1%, while Walgreens led the rise by nearly 3.5%, while Chevron, the sole energy stock, rose 3.4%. Among the major S&P 500 sectors, IT, where Microsoft, Apple, and chip stocks are the only ones, closed down, falling by more than 0.4%. Energy gains boosted by a rebound in crude oil led by nearly 2.5%, and interest-rate-sensitive real estate rose nearly 2.4%.
Among S&P's energy constituents, at the close, Targa Resources (TRGP) rose nearly 5.6%, Diamondback Energy (FANG) rose more than 5%, Occidental Petroleum and Apa rose nearly 5%, and Marathon Petroleum and Hess rose nearly 4%.
Most of the seven major technology stocks, including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla, fell by at least 1% in the intraday period; only Tesla and Meta closed higher. Among them, Tesla closed up 6.2%, rising for two consecutive days after two consecutive declines, breaking the high position since January 24.
Among FAANMG's six major technology stocks, Microsoft fell more than 1% in the intraday session, closing down 0.7%, falling back to its closing low since February 6; Apple fell more than 1% in early trading, closing down nearly 0.2%, and will drop for 4 consecutive days, or breaking the closing low since January 5; Google's parent company Alphabet fell nearly 3.6% in early trading, closing down nearly 2.2%, falling back to the closing low since February 2; Amazon fell more than 1% in early trading, closing down 0.7%, close to the low closing position since February 1 set on Tuesday; The company Meta rose more than 3% in midday trading. It hit a record high in the intraday period, closing up nearly 2.3%, and rising for two consecutive days, breaking the record closing high set on February 2; Netflix closed 2.4%, rising for two consecutive days, continuing to break the closing high since December 2021.
Chip stocks generally turned down during the intraday period and outperformed the general market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX fell close to 0.6% and more than 0.5% respectively after turning down in early trading. After turning up in midday trading, they turned down again at the end of the session, closing down close to 0.2% and about 0.1%, respectively. The former was no longer close to historical closing highs, while the latter remained at historic highs for the time being. Among individual stocks, Nvidia's early trading decline reached 2%, closing down nearly 1.7%, falling to a record closing record high of Tuesday's rebound; after being revealed by Nvidia that it held $147 million in the fourth quarter of last year, Arm rose 6% at the beginning of the session and fell nearly 2.3% after turning down in early trading, closing by 5.8%; TSMC US stocks, which rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, fell 0.7%, closing down 0.2%; by the close, AMD fell more than 1%, and Intel, which had risen more than 2% in early trading, had fallen by more than 2% in early trading Qualcomm, on the other hand, rose more than 1%.
Some AI concept stocks surged. Ultra Micro Computer (SMCI) closed up 14%, rising nine trading days, and hitting a record closing record high for nine consecutive days; Soundhound.ai (SOUN), which had risen 80% at the beginning of the session, closed up nearly 67%; by the close, C3.ai (AI) rose nearly 3%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose nearly 18%, and Palantir (PLTR), which had fallen 1.9% in early trading, rose nearly 0.9%, while Adobe (ADBE) fell more than 2%.
Popular Chinese securities generally continued to rise. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up nearly 1%, rising for two consecutive days, outperforming the market for two consecutive days, breaking the closing high since January 8. China's general ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up nearly 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Following Bitcoin's sharp rise on Wednesday, the two Bitcoin mining giants retreated and turned down at the beginning of the session. Canan Technology, which rose more than 30% on Wednesday, fell more than 8% in early trading, closed up 1.3% after turning up at the end of the session, and Yibang International, which rose more than 25% on Wednesday, fell nearly 7%. Among other individual stocks, at the close, Pinduoduo rose more than 2%; JD and Xiaopeng Motors rose nearly 2%; NIO Auto, Ideal Auto, Station B, and iQiyi rose more than 1%; Alibaba rose 0.6%; NetEase rose 0.2%; Baidu, which fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, closed up 0.1%, while Tencent fan fell more than 1%.
Among individual stocks that published financial reports, financial reports showed that after sales growth stagnated, revenue guidance for the third fiscal quarter was lower than expected, annual revenue guidance was lowered, and global layoffs of 5% were announced, Cisco (CSCO) fell more than 4% at the beginning of the session, and the decline narrowed to within 2% in early trading; agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere (DE), which had better results than expected in the first fiscal quarter but lowered its net profit guidelines for the full fiscal year, fell more than 5% in early trading; while the fourth quarter's revenue and profit were higher than expected, Cloud Data Management Informatica (INFA), software developer JFrog (FROG) and fast food chain Shake Shack (SHAK) rose nearly 8%, more than 10%, more than 20%, and more than 20% in early trading, respectively; App technology company Applovin (APP), which had better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and full-year guidance, rose more than 20% in early trading.
Among individual stocks with high volatility, Nano-X Imaging (NNOX) rose about 100% at the beginning of the session and closed up 49.3% after being revealed by Nvidia to have a small position in the fourth quarter.
In terms of European stocks, Lagarde said that inflation in the Eurozone is falling towards the ECB's target, the performance of some companies is improving, and the pan-European stock index has been rising for two consecutive days, smoothing out the decline that fell on Tuesday. The European Stoxx 600 Index closed at 494.35 points on January 5, 2022, and closed at a new high since the beginning of January 2022 on the second day of this week following Monday. Major European stock indices rose sharply on Thursday, and German and French stocks both hit record closing highs set on Monday
Among various sectors, automobiles closed up 2%, hitting a new high in nearly two years, mainly due to the announcement that the operating profit margin in 2023 far exceeded the 2022 level, and the annual dividend was more than six times higher than in 2022, and the Parisian Renault surged 6.5%; food and beverage rose nearly 1.4%, benefiting from a nearly 2% increase in Pernod, which kept its growth target unchanged. The wine giant also supported the French stock index to record highs.
Among other individual stocks, Commerzbank, which hit a 15-year high profit in 2023 due to rising interest rates, rose 5.5%, boosting the German stock index to a record high; after announcing that it will launch a 3 billion euro repurchase program this year, Milan-listed auto giant Stellantis rose 5.7% to support the Italian stock index leading the way among countries; Novo & Nord, the highest European pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, closed up nearly 0.2%, reaching a record high for three consecutive days.
Crude oil rebounded, US oil rose nearly 2% to a three-month high, and US natural gas hit a new low for more than three years on the 7th
International crude oil futures turned upward in the intraday period. When European stocks hit a new low in early trading, US WTI crude oil fell below $75.80, falling more than 1.1% during the day, Brent crude oil was close to $80.70, falling nearly 1.1% during the day. European stocks maintained gains after the mid-day rise, and the rise accelerated after the announcement of US retail sales. When US stocks hit a new high in early trading, US oil rose above $78.40, up more than 2.3% during the day, and oil rose above $83.20.
In the end, WTI crude oil futures for March closed up 1.81% to 78.03 US dollars/barrel on Wednesday, breaking the high level since November 6, 2023; after two consecutive days of decline, Brent crude oil futures for April closed up 1.54% to 82.86 US dollars/barrel, breaking the closing high since January 26 set on Tuesday.
US gasoline and natural gas futures had mixed ups and downs. NYMEX's March gasoline futures, which fell more than 3% on Wednesday, closed up nearly 0.1% to $2.3,183 per gallon, and are not close to the high since October 2, 2023, which was refreshed by two consecutive days of gains on Tuesday; NYMEX March natural gas futures closed down 1.74% to 1.5810 US dollars/million British thermal units, falling for eight consecutive trading days, continuing to hit the longest continuous decline since October 20, 2023, for two consecutive days, hitting a new low for at least three years since September 2020.
Lunzinc rose nearly 2%, and Luntong rebounded to a one-week high, and gold stopped falling for five consecutive months
London basic metals futures had mixed ups and downs on Thursday. Lunzinc rose more than 1.8%, and rebounded to a one-week high after two consecutive days of decline. Luntong rose more than 1% and also fell and rebounded on Wednesday, closing above 8,300 US dollars for the first time in more than a week. After falling to a low since November 2022 on Tuesday, lead continued to rebound to a one-week high.
Meanwhile, Renxi fell two times in a row and continued to fall from the half-year high since August last year, which was set by six consecutive gains on Tuesday. Lunnickel fell to a new high level since the end of January after three consecutive gains. Lunlu retreated and began falling to the two-week low set last Monday.
New York gold futures maintained their gains after European stocks turned up before the market. The increase expanded after the announcement of US retail sales. US stocks reached a high of 2020.20 US dollars at the beginning of the market, rising nearly 0.8% during the day.
In the end, futures stopped falling for five days. COMEX April gold futures closed up 0.53% to 2014.90 US dollars/ounce, breaking away from the closing low since December 13, 2023, which was refreshed on Wednesday. It will continue to fall this week as it closed down nearly 1.3% on Tuesday, the biggest drop since January 3.
Editor/Jeffrey