FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Outlook | “Horrible Data” Hits Biggest Decline in Nearly a Year! The three major indices rose slightly; several giants disclosed their 13F holdings, and Alibaba was grabbed by institutions

Futu News · Feb 15 21:38

全球宏观

美国1月零售销售月率创2023年3月以来最大降幅，三大期指小幅上扬

美国1月零售销售环比下降0.8%，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，预期下降0.1%，前值增长0.6%。在零售销售数据公布后，互换市场定价反映出美联储在2024年进行更多的政策宽松。美国至2月10日当周初请失业金人数21.2万人，预期22万人，前值21.8万人。

前美联储经济学家：美联储毫无必要推迟降息

前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆在英国《金融时报》上撰文称，强劲的劳动力和通胀状况不应阻碍降息，长期较高的政策利率只会加剧美国经济的困境。他写道：“从一开始，这个周期与美联储没有什么关系。我们已经非常接近消除新冠疫情造成的最终破坏了，现在不是美联储在降息问题上拖延的时候。”

法兴银行：标普500指数再涨25%才算泡沫

法兴银行指出，标普500指数还需要再飙升25%，才能达到90年代助长科技股泡沫的“非理性繁荣”水平。该行分析师Manish Kabra和Alain Bokobza周三在一份报告中称：“如果将当初的科技泡沫算法应用于纳斯达克100指数，则标普500指数必须要达到6250点，才能达到当初的‘非理性繁荣’水平。”

IEA月报：2024年全球石油供应增长将超过需求增长

IEA月报称，石油需求增长放缓，而非欧佩克+供应增加。2024年全球石油供应增长将超过需求增长。2024年，全球石油供应量将增加170万桶/日，达到创纪录的1.038亿桶。预计2024年第一季度石油库存将“略有增加”。将2024年全球石油需求增长预估调降至122万桶/日，先前预估为124万桶/日。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一

区块链概念股盘前延续涨势

大摩：特斯拉机构投资者士气空前低落，几乎一致看空

摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯在周三的一份报告中写道，他刚刚从有史以来最悲观的特斯拉多头/空头午餐会上回来，这是摩根士丹利为机构客户举行的半定期聚会，每个人都认为该股将在未来6个月内表现不佳，几乎所有人都认为该股未来一年将表现不佳。乔纳斯列举了客户整体看空的几个原因，其中最大的一个原因是人工智能，以及$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$被排除在与人工智能相关的科技股上涨之外。

巴菲特Q4减持1000万股苹果

巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公布的四季度13F文件显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦减持$苹果 (AAPL.US)$1000万股，并增$雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$1600万股。截至Q4末，该基金持仓总规模为3470亿美元，较上季度增加340亿美元，苹果占比为50.19%。苹果盘前股价微跌。

英伟达披露对Arm、SOUN持仓，SOUN盘前飙升超83%

英伟达公司在提交给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的13F表格披露了对软银旗下芯片设计公司$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$，以及人工智能软件开发商$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$和生物技术公司$Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX.US)$的投资。对Arm的投资规模最大，达1.473亿美元，在Recursion的持股份价值约7600万美元，在SoundHound的持股价值367万美元。ARM盘前涨超2%，SOUN盘前飙升超83%。

桥水Q4大调仓，继续加码英伟达

桥水四季度13F文件显示，该基金在Q4大笔进行了调仓，新建仓87只股票并清仓85只股票。自去年Q3重新建仓英伟达以来，其四季度继续增持22万股英伟达股票，持仓比例达0.74%。此外，桥水还增持了$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$思科 (CSCO.US)$等科技股，减持$拼多多 (PDD.US)$、$百事可乐 (PEP.US)$、$沃尔玛 (WMT.US)$。截至Q4末持仓总规模增至179亿美元，较上季度增加14亿美元。

美国千亿美元摩门教基金第四季度减持“七巨头”股票

美国耶稣基督末世圣徒教会（摩门教）的投资基金Peak Advisors最新提交的13F报告显示，该基金在第四季度减少了对大型科技股的投资，“七巨头”股票无一例外被减持，包括减持$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$154150股。该基金的投资组合规模高达1000亿美元以上，其中包括510亿美元的股票投资，“七巨头”股票均排在前十，$微软 (MSFT.US)$是最大重仓股，仓位近30亿美元。

扎克伯格亲测苹果混合头显Vision Pro，称自家Quest 3更好，性价比更高

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$首席执行官马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）日前在Instagram上发布了一段视频，分享了他对苹果公司新推出的混合现实头戴设备Vision Pro的看法。他表示，Meta的Quest 3头盔“性价比更高”，并且是“毫无疑问的更好产品”。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数上扬

多家基金公司四季度增持阿里巴巴和京东

电影“大卖空”本尊Michael Burry旗下避险基金Scion Asset Management在去年第4季进一步增持$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$和$京东 (JD.US)$。加拿大最大养老基金上季新买入$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$、$理想汽车 (LI.US)$、$京东 (JD.US)$、$网易 (NTES.US)$等，且阿里巴巴是该基金上季最大手笔新买入标的。

高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors四季度美股持仓披露，加仓电商科技公司

高瓴旗下独立的、专注于二级市场投资的基金管理平台HHLR Advisors公布了2023年第四季度末的美股持仓情况。数据显示，去年四季度HHLR Advisors在美股市场持仓总市值为49.62亿美元，环比去年三季度末增长10.7%，前十大重仓股为$拼多多 (PDD.US)$、$百济神州 (BGNE.US)$、$贝壳 (BEKE.US)$、$传奇生物 (LEGN.US)$、$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$赛富时 (CRM.US)$、$Take-Two互动软件 (TTWO.US)$、$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$丹纳赫 (DHR.US)$、$DoorDash (DASH.US)$。去年四季度HHLR Advisors对拼多多、亚马逊、京东等电商科技公司进行了增持。拼多多成为HHLR Advisors第一大重仓股，截至去年四季度末，HHLR Advisors持有拼多多101.1万股，相比于去年三季度末增持27.6万股。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

21:30 美国1月零售销售月率、美国至2月10日当周初请失业金人数(万人)公布

22:15 美国1月工业产出月率公布

23:00 美国12月商业库存月率、美国2月NAHB房产市场指数公布

次日

01:00 2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利在全美商业经济协会会议上发表讲话

08:00 2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就经济前景和货币政策发表讲话

编辑/lambor

Global macroscopic

The monthly retail sales rate in the US in January recorded the biggest decline since March 2023, and the three major indices rose slightly

Retail sales in the US fell 0.8% month-on-month in January, the biggest decline since March 2023. It is expected to fall 0.1%, and the previous value is up 0.6%. Following the release of retail sales data, swap market pricing reflects the Federal Reserve's further policy easing in 2024. The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of February 10 was 212,000, which is expected to be 220,000, compared with the previous value of 218,000.

Former Federal Reserve Economist: There is no need for the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sam wrote in the Financial Times that strong labor and inflation should not hinder interest rate cuts; long-term high policy interest rates will only exacerbate the plight of the US economy. He wrote, “From the beginning, this cycle had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve. We are very close to eliminating the ultimate damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and now is not the time for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates.”

Societe Generale Bank: A 25% increase in the S&P 500 index will count as a bubble

Societe Generale pointed out that the S&P 500 index will need to soar another 25% to reach the level of “irrational prosperity” that fueled the tech stock bubble in the 90s. The bank's analysts Manish Kabra and Alain Bokobza said in a report on Wednesday: “If the original tech bubble algorithm were applied to the Nasdaq 100 index, the S&P 500 index would have to reach 6,250 points to reach the original level of 'irrational prosperity'.”

IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply growth will exceed demand growth in 2024

According to the IEA monthly report, oil demand growth is slowing, not an increase in OPEC+ supply. Global oil supply growth will outpace demand growth in 2024. In 2024, global oil supply will increase by 1.7 million b/d to a record 103.8 million barrels. Oil inventories are expected to “slightly increase” in the first quarter of 2024. The estimated increase in global oil demand in 2024 was reduced to 1.22 million b/d, compared to the previous estimate of 1.24 million b/d.

Hot news

Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

Blockchain concept stocks continued to rise before the market

Damo: The morale of Tesla institutional investors is at an all-time low, and they are almost unanimously bearish

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a Wednesday report that he has just returned from the most pessimistic Tesla long/short luncheon in history. This is a semi-regular gathering held by Morgan Stanley for institutional clients. Everyone thinks the stock will not perform well over the next 6 months, and almost everyone thinks the stock will not perform well in the next year. Jonas listed several reasons why customers are generally bearish. One of the biggest reasons is artificial intelligence, and$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Excluded from rising tech stocks linked to artificial intelligence.

Buffett cuts Apple holdings by 10 million shares in Q4

According to the fourth quarter 13F documents released by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings$Apple (AAPL.US)$10 million shares, and an increase$Chevron (CVX.US)$16 million shares. By the end of Q4, the fund's total holdings were US$347 billion, an increase of US$34 billion over the previous quarter, with Apple accounting for 50.19%. Apple's stock price fell slightly before the market.

Nvidia revealed its holdings in Arm and SOUN, and SOUN soared more than 83% before the market

Nvidia disclosed in Form 13F submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to SoftBank's chip design company$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$, and artificial intelligence software developers$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$and biotech companies$Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX.US)$investment. The largest investment in Arm reached US$147.3 million, with shares worth approximately US$76 million in Recursion and US$3.67 million in SoundHound. ARM surged more than 2% before the market, and SOUN surged more than 83% before the market.

Qiaoshui Q4 major warehouse continues to expand Nvidia

According to Qiaoshui's 13F documents for the fourth quarter, the fund made significant adjustments in Q4, created new positions for 87 stocks, and cleared 85 stocks. Since reopening Nvidia's position in Q3 last year, it has continued to increase its holdings of 220,000 Nvidia shares in the fourth quarter, with a holding ratio of 0.74%. In addition, bridge water holdings have also increased$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$,$Cisco (CSCO.US)$Wait for technology stocks and reduce holdings$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$,$PepsiCo (PEP.US)$,$Walmart (WMT.US)$. By the end of Q4, the total volume of holdings had increased to US$17.9 billion, an increase of US$1.4 billion over the previous quarter.

The US $100 billion Mormon Foundation reduced its holdings of the “Big Seven” stocks in the fourth quarter

According to the latest 13F report submitted by Peak Advisors, an investment fund of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) in the United States, the fund reduced its investment in large technology stocks in the fourth quarter, and the “Big Seven” stocks were reduced without exception, including the reduction of holdings$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$154,150 shares. The fund's investment portfolio is over 100 billion US dollars, including 51 billion US dollars in stock investments. The “Big Seven” stocks all rank in the top ten.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It is the largest stock with a position of nearly 3 billion US dollars.

Zuckerberg personally tested Apple's hybrid headset Vision Pro, saying his Quest 3 is better and more cost-effective

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$CEO Mark Zuckerberg (Mark Zuckerberg) recently posted a video on Instagram sharing his views on Apple's newly launched mixed reality headset Vision Pro. He said Meta's Quest 3 helmet was “more cost-effective” and “unquestionably a better product.”

Focus on China Securities

Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks rose before the market

A number of fund companies increased their holdings of Alibaba and JD in the fourth quarter

Scion Asset Management, a safe haven fund owned by Michael Burry, the main character of the movie “The Big Short Sale”, further increased its holdings in the fourth quarter of last year$Alibaba (BABA.US)$und$JD.com (JD.US)$. Canada's largest pension fund made new purchases last quarter$Alibaba (BABA.US)$,$Li Auto (LI.US)$,$JD.com (JD.US)$,$NetEase (NTES.US)$Wait, and Alibaba was the fund's biggest new buyer last quarter.

Gao Lin's HHLR Advisors disclosed US stock holdings in the fourth quarter, adding positions to e-commerce technology companies

HHLR Advisors, an independent fund management platform under Gao Lin that focuses on secondary market investments, announced US stock holdings at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the data, the total market value of HHLR Advisors' positions in the US stock market in the fourth quarter of last year was US$4.962 billion, an increase of 10.7% over the end of the third quarter of last year. The top ten largest stocks were$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$,$BeiGene (BGNE.US)$,$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$,$Legend Biotech (LEGN.US)$,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Salesforce (CRM.US)$,$Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Danaher (DHR.US)$,$DoorDash (DASH.US)$. In the fourth quarter of last year, HHLR Advisors increased its holdings in e-commerce technology companies such as Pinduoduo, Amazon, and JD. Pinduoduo became HHLR Advisors' largest stock. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, HHLR Advisors held 1.011 million shares of Pinduoduo, an increase of 276,000 shares compared to the end of the third quarter of last year.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 The monthly rate of retail sales in the US for January and the number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of February 10 (10,000 people) announced

22:15 Monthly rate of US industrial output for January announced

23:00 US monthly commercial inventory rate for December and US NAHB real estate market index for February announced

The next day

01:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech at the National Business Economics Association meeting

08:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered speeches on economic prospects and monetary policy

edit/lambor

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