美股前瞻 | “恐怖数据”创近一年以来最大降幅!三大期指小幅上扬;多家巨头披露13F持仓,阿里巴巴获机构抢筹

US Stock Outlook | “Horrible Data” Hits Biggest Decline in Nearly a Year! The three major indices rose slightly; several giants disclosed their 13F holdings, and Alibaba was grabbed by institutions

Futu News ·  Feb 15 21:38

Global macroscopic

  • The monthly retail sales rate in the US in January recorded the biggest decline since March 2023, and the three major indices rose slightly

Retail sales in the US fell 0.8% month-on-month in January, the biggest decline since March 2023. It is expected to fall 0.1%, and the previous value is up 0.6%. Following the release of retail sales data, swap market pricing reflects the Federal Reserve's further policy easing in 2024. The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of February 10 was 212,000, which is expected to be 220,000, compared with the previous value of 218,000.

  • Former Federal Reserve Economist: There is no need for the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sam wrote in the Financial Times that strong labor and inflation should not hinder interest rate cuts; long-term high policy interest rates will only exacerbate the plight of the US economy. He wrote, “From the beginning, this cycle had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve. We are very close to eliminating the ultimate damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and now is not the time for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates.”

  • Societe Generale Bank: A 25% increase in the S&P 500 index will count as a bubble

Societe Generale pointed out that the S&P 500 index will need to soar another 25% to reach the level of “irrational prosperity” that fueled the tech stock bubble in the 90s. The bank's analysts Manish Kabra and Alain Bokobza said in a report on Wednesday: “If the original tech bubble algorithm were applied to the Nasdaq 100 index, the S&P 500 index would have to reach 6,250 points to reach the original level of 'irrational prosperity'.”

  • IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply growth will exceed demand growth in 2024

According to the IEA monthly report, oil demand growth is slowing, not an increase in OPEC+ supply. Global oil supply growth will outpace demand growth in 2024. In 2024, global oil supply will increase by 1.7 million b/d to a record 103.8 million barrels. Oil inventories are expected to “slightly increase” in the first quarter of 2024. The estimated increase in global oil demand in 2024 was reduced to 1.22 million b/d, compared to the previous estimate of 1.24 million b/d.

Hot news

  • Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

  • Blockchain concept stocks continued to rise before the market

  • Damo: The morale of Tesla institutional investors is at an all-time low, and they are almost unanimously bearish

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a Wednesday report that he has just returned from the most pessimistic Tesla long/short luncheon in history. This is a semi-regular gathering held by Morgan Stanley for institutional clients. Everyone thinks the stock will not perform well over the next 6 months, and almost everyone thinks the stock will not perform well in the next year. Jonas listed several reasons why customers are generally bearish. One of the biggest reasons is artificial intelligence, and$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Excluded from rising tech stocks linked to artificial intelligence.

  • Buffett cuts Apple holdings by 10 million shares in Q4

According to the fourth quarter 13F documents released by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings$Apple (AAPL.US)$10 million shares, and an increase$Chevron (CVX.US)$16 million shares. By the end of Q4, the fund's total holdings were US$347 billion, an increase of US$34 billion over the previous quarter, with Apple accounting for 50.19%. Apple's stock price fell slightly before the market.

  • Nvidia revealed its holdings in Arm and SOUN, and SOUN soared more than 83% before the market

Nvidia disclosed in Form 13F submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to SoftBank's chip design company$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$, and artificial intelligence software developers$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$and biotech companies$Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX.US)$investment. The largest investment in Arm reached US$147.3 million, with shares worth approximately US$76 million in Recursion and US$3.67 million in SoundHound. ARM surged more than 2% before the market, and SOUN surged more than 83% before the market.

  • Qiaoshui Q4 major warehouse continues to expand Nvidia

According to Qiaoshui's 13F documents for the fourth quarter, the fund made significant adjustments in Q4, created new positions for 87 stocks, and cleared 85 stocks. Since reopening Nvidia's position in Q3 last year, it has continued to increase its holdings of 220,000 Nvidia shares in the fourth quarter, with a holding ratio of 0.74%. In addition, bridge water holdings have also increased$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$,$Cisco (CSCO.US)$Wait for technology stocks and reduce holdings$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$,$PepsiCo (PEP.US)$,$Walmart (WMT.US)$. By the end of Q4, the total volume of holdings had increased to US$17.9 billion, an increase of US$1.4 billion over the previous quarter.

  • The US $100 billion Mormon Foundation reduced its holdings of the “Big Seven” stocks in the fourth quarter

According to the latest 13F report submitted by Peak Advisors, an investment fund of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon) in the United States, the fund reduced its investment in large technology stocks in the fourth quarter, and the “Big Seven” stocks were reduced without exception, including the reduction of holdings$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$154,150 shares. The fund's investment portfolio is over 100 billion US dollars, including 51 billion US dollars in stock investments. The “Big Seven” stocks all rank in the top ten.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It is the largest stock with a position of nearly 3 billion US dollars.

  • Zuckerberg personally tested Apple's hybrid headset Vision Pro, saying his Quest 3 is better and more cost-effective

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$CEO Mark Zuckerberg (Mark Zuckerberg) recently posted a video on Instagram sharing his views on Apple's newly launched mixed reality headset Vision Pro. He said Meta's Quest 3 helmet was “more cost-effective” and “unquestionably a better product.”

Focus on China Securities

  • Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks rose before the market

  • A number of fund companies increased their holdings of Alibaba and JD in the fourth quarter

Scion Asset Management, a safe haven fund owned by Michael Burry, the main character of the movie “The Big Short Sale”, further increased its holdings in the fourth quarter of last year$Alibaba (BABA.US)$und$ (JD.US)$. Canada's largest pension fund made new purchases last quarter$Alibaba (BABA.US)$,$Li Auto (LI.US)$,$ (JD.US)$,$NetEase (NTES.US)$Wait, and Alibaba was the fund's biggest new buyer last quarter.

  • Gao Lin's HHLR Advisors disclosed US stock holdings in the fourth quarter, adding positions to e-commerce technology companies

HHLR Advisors, an independent fund management platform under Gao Lin that focuses on secondary market investments, announced US stock holdings at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the data, the total market value of HHLR Advisors' positions in the US stock market in the fourth quarter of last year was US$4.962 billion, an increase of 10.7% over the end of the third quarter of last year. The top ten largest stocks were$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$,$BeiGene (BGNE.US)$,$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$,$Legend Biotech (LEGN.US)$,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Salesforce (CRM.US)$,$Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Danaher (DHR.US)$,$DoorDash (DASH.US)$. In the fourth quarter of last year, HHLR Advisors increased its holdings in e-commerce technology companies such as Pinduoduo, Amazon, and JD. Pinduoduo became HHLR Advisors' largest stock. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, HHLR Advisors held 1.011 million shares of Pinduoduo, an increase of 276,000 shares compared to the end of the third quarter of last year.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

21:30 The monthly rate of retail sales in the US for January and the number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of February 10 (10,000 people) announced

22:15 Monthly rate of US industrial output for January announced

23:00 US monthly commercial inventory rate for December and US NAHB real estate market index for February announced

The next day

01:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech at the National Business Economics Association meeting

08:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered speeches on economic prospects and monetary policy


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