Global macroscopic
Before Monday's market, the three major futures indices fell slightly
Early this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin of the Federal Reserve in Richmond will deliver a speech at the Atlanta Economic Club. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari will participate in discussions at the Minnesota Economic Club. As of press release, the three major indices have declined slightly.
Don't go against the Federal Reserve? Market interest rate cut expectations fell sharply, close to the Federal Reserve's guidance
Hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates starting in March are getting slim, and bond traders have finally learned the oldest lesson: don't go against the Federal Reserve. Bond traders have begun to “surrender”. Currently, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 4-5 times this year, by 25 basis points each time, close to the Fed's guideline of cutting interest rates 3 times. This is in stark contrast to last December's bet to cut interest rates starting in March, and the rate cut was as high as 175 basis points.
Does the split in US stocks make sense? 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations, and 38% of small-cap stocks suffered losses
Two-thirds of the earnings season has passed, and the reasons for the divergence in the trend of US stocks this year have gradually surfaced. According to Bloomberg, about 80% of the companies included in the S&P 500 index exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter, easily surpassing the 10-year average of 74%. Furthermore, in the Russell 2000 Index, which is the benchmark for small-cap stocks, the proportion of constituent stocks that lost money in the fourth quarter was close to 38%, the highest level since 2019.
Well-known Bank of America analyst: Multiple selling signals for US stocks are close to triggering
Michael Hartnett, a well-known Bank of America analyst, recently stated that the rise in the US stock market has reached a record high and is about to trigger multiple selling signals. Hartnett recently said that in the week ending February 7, Bank of America's bullish and bear indicators rose to 6.8; when the reading is above 8, it indicates that the rise has gone too far, sending a reverse selling signal. In addition, fund managers' cash levels and capital inflows from risk assets are also important indicators for predicting that US stocks will peak.
ChatGPT's father chip plan revealed: to raise up to 7 trillion US dollars, it will reshape the global semiconductor industry
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is in talks with potential investors, including the UAE government, to promote a project aimed at improving global chip manufacturing capabilities and reshaping the global semiconductor industry. One of the people familiar with the matter revealed that the plan is preparing to raise up to 5 trillion to 7 trillion US dollars.
Hot news
Most star tech stocks rose slightly
Jinglin Asset's latest US stock position adjustment: the top ten heavy-held stocks accounted for more than 90%, slightly reducing its holdings of the most heavily held stock, Pinduoduo
Domestic private equity giant Jinglin Asset recently revealed its latest positions in the US stock market. Jinglin Hong Kong Company increased its positions in a number of Chinese securities in the fourth quarter of last year, including$NetEase (NTES.US)$,$Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$,$TAL Education (TAL.US)$etc.;$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$It is still its largest stock, but its holdings have been reduced. The market value of its holdings reached US$693 million at the end of the year; it also reduced its holdings$ZTO Express (ZTO.US)$,$New Oriental (EDU.US)$,$Kanzhun (BZ.US)$,$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Wait, it's cleared$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$, Little Tencent in Southeast Asia$Sea (SE.US)$,$Li Auto (LI.US)$, home appliance companies$SharkNinja (SN.US)$.
Why are the “Big Five Tech” expensive? Not just performance, but $140 billion in cash on the books!
Goldman Sachs used a chart to show the “jaw-dropping” market since the beginning of the year. The “carnival” of a few stocks continued, and the top 5 stocks in US stock market capitalization contributed 70% of the increase. According to data compiled by the media, as of the fourth quarter of December 30 last year,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$und$Meta Platforms (META.US)$The five major tech giants hit a new high in cash reserves, totaling nearly 140 billion US dollars. According to media analysis, it can be seen from the cash in the hands of the tech giants that these companies still have 100 billion dollars of profit that have not been released, and the rise may continue.
Nvidia enters the field of custom chips, and the stock price is expected to reach a new high, and the market capitalization is hitting Amazon Google
Last Friday, the general AI leader in US stocks$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It closed 3.58% higher, reaching another record high. Nvidia is rumored to be entering the custom chip market, further consolidating its leading position in AI chips, and is even expected to “build another Arm” internally. Inspired by this news, Nvidia's stock price reached a new high, and the market capitalization approached Amazon and Google. As of press release, Nvidia is up nearly 1% before the market, and the opening is expected to reach a new high.
Sound the AI PC trumpet! Microsoft continues to increase “Copilot content” in Windows
In recent months,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Gradually, more artificial intelligence features have been added to Windows 11, including the most significant Copilot integration. Microsoft wants 2024 to be the “year of AI PCs,” and is also preparing for major feature updates to Windows.
New York Community Bank rose more than 1% before the market. A number of executives entered the market to buy stocks, and traders bought options
$New York Community Bancorp (NYCB.US)$Since dividend cuts and increased preparation for bad debts were announced last week, stock prices have been slashed. According to regulatory documents, a number of New York Community Bank executives entered the market to buy shares. Although they only purchased 200,000 shares in total, it still stimulated the bank's stock price to soar by nearly 17% on Friday, the biggest one-day increase in four months. In addition, traders also bought bullish options in large amounts. As of press release, the company was up more than 1% before the market.
Focus on China Securities
The pre-market trend of popular Chinese securities stocks is divergent
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
22:20 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivered a speech
The next day
00:00 US January New York Federal Reserve 1-year inflation forecast
01:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech at the Atlanta Economic Club
02:00 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari participated in the Minnesota Economic Club discussions
Editor/Somer