Source: Zhitong Finance Author: Zhao Jinbin

in$Meta Platforms (META.US)$After the first dividend payment in the company's history, the market began to look forward to the next company to launch a dividend plan. In response, Goldman Sachs raised its dividend per share (DPS) growth forecast for the overall market. Strategist David Kostin will$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The DPS growth forecast was raised from 4% to 6%, maintaining the 5% growth level in 2025.

Kostin said, “From a top-down perspective, the improvement in earnings per share growth in the S&P 500 index in the second half of 2023 and our forecast of 5% EPS growth in 2024 and 2025 will support DPS growth. From a bottom-up perspective, Meta's dividend launch announcement will allow the S&P 500 to increase DPS by less than 1% in 2024, and large US banks may achieve 10% DPS growth in 2024.”

“The dividend futures market means the DPS of the S&P 500 index increased by 3% in 2024, up 4 percentage points from -1% since the end of October.”

Kostin added: “If other big companies start to pay dividends, this will have a significant impact on the whole.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$und$Amazon (AMZN.US)$They are currently the two largest stocks that don't pay dividends, but historically, their fundamentals suggest they are more likely to pay dividends compared to their peers.”

“If Google and Amazon pay dividends at a 10% dividend rate, the DPS of the S&P 500 index could increase by $1.32 (1.8%) in 2024.”

Kostin said: “In contrast to banks seeking to retain capital in 2023, in 2024, our bank analysts believe that the improved economic outlook and the potential reduction of the final terms of Basel 3 will lead to overcapitalization of major US banks. They believe this will lead to an increase in bank repurchase activity, and our analysts have also simulated an average 10% increase in GSIB (Global Systemically Important Banks) dividends in 2024.”

Goldman Sachs screened the largest unpaid stocks in the S&P 500 index, assumed a payout ratio of 10% for each stock, and calculated the impact of these stocks on the DPS of the S&P 500 index in 2024.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$: Assuming a DPS of $0.70, the DPS of the S&P 500 index implied an increase of $0.88 in 2024, or 1.2%;

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$: $0.40, $0.44, 0.6%;

$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$: $1.80, $0.38, 0.5%;

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$: $0.30, $0.10, 0.1%;

$Salesforce (CRM.US)$: $1.00, $0.11, 0.1%;

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$: $1.80, $0.10, 0.1%;

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$: $0.40, $0.07, 0.1%;

$Netflix (NFLX.US)$: $1.70, $0.09, 0.1%;

$ServiceNow (NOW.US)$: $1.30, $0.03, 0.0%;

$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$: $0.10, $0.03, 0.0%;

$Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$: $0.60, $0.03, 0.0%;

$Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$: $17.70, $0.07, 0.1%;

$Boeing (BA.US)$: $0.40, $0.03, 0.0%;

$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$: $0.60, $0.02, 0.0%;

$Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US)$: $1.70, $0.05, 0.1%;

$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US)$: $4.6, $0.06, 0.1%;

$Boston Scientific (BSX.US)$: $0.20, $0.04, 0.1%;

$Synopsys (SNPS.US)$: $1.40, $0.02, 0.0%;

$Fiserv (FI.US)$: $0.90, $0.06, 0.1%.

edit/lambor