The major economic data and financial events for this week (2.12-2.16) are as follows:
In terms of economic data, this week we can focus on the US CPI and PPI data for January, the monthly retail sales rate for the US in January, and the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for February.
In terms of economic events, the results of the Hang Seng Index quarterly review will be announced on Friday. Also, a number of Federal Reserve Board members will be speaking this week. Recently, several officials have taken turns shouting, saying that they have found no reason to cut interest rates urgently, and suggest that interest rate cuts will have to wait until May at the earliest.
In terms of financial reports, you can pay attention to the performance of companies such as Coca Cola, Shopify, Airbnb, and Occidental Petroleum.
Also, during the Spring Festival, Hong Kong stocks will be closed from Monday to Tuesday, and will open as usual from Wednesday.
Monday, February 12
Keywords: Hong Kong stock market closure
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, Hong Kong stocks will be closed from February 12 (Monday) to February 13 (Tuesday), open as usual from February 14 (Wednesday), and US stocks will open normally.
Tuesday, February 13th
Keywords: US January unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate/US January core CPI monthly rate/Coca Cola, Shopify financial report
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the most important one was the US CPI inflation report for January. The unseasonally adjusted CPI rate for January is expected to fall to 3% from 3.4% in December, while the core CPI annual rate will drop to 3.8% from 3.9% previously.
Although the US inflation rate is generally on a downward trend, the vast majority of Federal Reserve officials said that it may take some time to cut interest rates. This has provided support to the US dollar, and investors expect the first rate cut should be in May.
In terms of Fed dynamics, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech at the Atlanta Economic Club. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari will participate in discussions at the Minnesota Economic Club.
Most Federal Reserve officials expect to cut interest rates three times this year, while the market expects five. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated at the press conference last week that interest rate cuts in March are unlikely to occur, nor is this the basic situation indicated by the Federal Reserve.
Barkin is also the latest Federal Reserve official to urge patience with interest rate cuts. He said that given the strong economic growth of the US, it will take some time to observe whether the economic situation is closer to the normal level before the pandemic, and then lower interest rates from the current 23-year high. This is only a “smart” approach for interest rate makers.
In terms of financial reports,$Coca-Cola (KO.US)$und$Shopify (SHOP.US)$Results will be announced in advance of the US stock market;$Airbnb (ABNB.US)$,$MGM Resorts International (MGM.US)$und$Upstart (UPST.US)$The list will be released after the market.
Wednesday, February 14th
Keywords：US EIA crude oil inventory/Occidental Petroleum financial report for the week ending February 9th
Economic data was weak on Wednesday. We can keep an eye on changes in US EIA crude oil inventories. This indicator is the economic data that has received the most attention in the crude oil market. The increase or decrease in inventories will affect crude oil prices.
For the week ending February 2, 2024, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.521 million barrels, the biggest increase since mid-November, exceeding market expectations of 1.895,000 barrels. On the other hand, crude oil reserves at the Cushing Delivery Center in Oklahoma remained unchanged after being reduced by 1.772,000 barrels the previous week.
Meanwhile, gasoline inventories unexpectedly declined by 3.145 million barrels, and the market had anticipated an increase of 140,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.22 million barrels, more than the 1 million barrels expected by the market.
In terms of financial reports, Buffett loves stocks$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$Results will be announced after the US stock market. The market generally predicts that Occidental Petroleum achieved revenue of 6.870 billion US dollars in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 17.49%; earnings per share were 0.62 US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 64.30%.
Thursday February 15
Keywords：Number of US jobless claims at the beginning of the week ending February 10/ Monthly rate of retail sales in the US in January/IEA releases monthly crude oil market report
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, we can focus on the monthly retail sales rate in the US for January. Through retail sales data, the market will understand the health status of American consumers. Signs that consumers may be cutting spending will weaken expectations of a soft landing in the US economy, which will support the Federal Reserve to start a cycle of interest rate cuts as soon as possible.
In addition, investors can also pay attention to economic data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the US New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for February.
The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of February 3 was 218,000, lower than the forecast of 220,000 and the previous value of 224,000, the first decline in three weeks. The media said that the decline in initial jobless claims indicates that employers are still retaining employees to a large extent. The US labor market has been surprisingly strong in recent months, which has boosted consumer spending.
In terms of Fed dynamics, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech at the National Business Economics Association meeting, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic spoke on economic prospects and monetary policy at the NYU Money Market People's Conference.
In addition, the IEA will publish a monthly crude oil market report. Investors can pay attention to the IEA's expectations related to crude oil demand and supply.
The market generally predicts that Coinbase Q4 will achieve revenue of US$820 million, an increase of 30.39% year on year; earnings per share will be 0.03 yuan, up 101.26% year on year.
Friday February 16
Keywords：US January PPI annual rate/US January PPI monthly rate/US University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value
In terms of economic data, investors can focus on the US January PPI annual rate, the US January PPI monthly rate, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
The US PPI increased 1% year on year in December, falling short of the expected 1.3%, rebounding from the 0.9% in November; PPI was -0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of the 0.1% expected, down from 0% of the previous value, and did not increase for the third month in a row.
The final value of the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 79 in January, higher than expected and initial values; the final value of the current status index rose to 81.9, but lower than the initial value; the final value of the outlook index rose to 77.1, which was higher than the initial value.
In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech at the National Business Economics Association conference, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic spoke on economic prospects and monetary policy.
Additionally, Hang Seng Indices will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for the fourth quarter of 2023 on the same day.
Good luck with your investments in the new week!