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Is Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd (SHSE:600531) A Risky Investment?

Is Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd (SHSE:600531) A Risky Investment?

河南宇光金鉛有限公司(上海證券交易所股票代碼:600531)是風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  02/11 08:32

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Henan Yuguang Gold&Lead Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600531) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到河南宇光金鉛有限公司, Ltd.(上海證券交易所代碼:600531)確實在其業務中使用債務。但更重要的問題是:債務創造了多大的風險?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新的資本或自由現金流還清債務。在最壞的情況下,如果公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東,這樣才能控制債務。但是,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的一個非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將其現金和債務放在一起考慮。

How Much Debt Does Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd Carry?

河南宇光金鉛有限公司揹負了多少債務?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd had CN¥8.15b of debt, up from CN¥7.52b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.89b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥6.26b.

如下所示,截至2023年9月底,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的債務爲81.5億元人民幣,高於去年同期的75.2億元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但是,由於其現金儲備爲18.9億元人民幣,其淨負債較少,約爲62.6億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:600531 Debt to Equity History February 11th 2024
SHSE: 600531 2024 年 2 月 11 日債務與股權比率的歷史記錄

How Healthy Is Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd's Balance Sheet?

河南宇光金鉛有限公司的資產負債表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd had liabilities of CN¥8.49b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥2.33b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.89b as well as receivables valued at CN¥647.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥8.28b.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的負債爲84.9億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲23.3億元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有18.9億元人民幣的現金以及價值6.470億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額82.8億元人民幣。

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's CN¥5.93b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

當你考慮到這一缺口超過了公司59.3億元人民幣的市值時,你很可能會傾向於仔細審查資產負債表。在公司必須迅速清理資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎可能會遭受大規模稀釋。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們通過以下方法來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力:將其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),並計算其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的難易程度。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

As it happens Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.0 but very strong interest coverage of 143. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Notably, Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 829% on last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

碰巧的是,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率相當令人擔憂,爲6.0,但利息覆蓋率非常高,爲143。這意味着,除非公司能夠獲得非常便宜的債務,否則利息支出將來可能會增加。值得注意的是,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的息稅前利潤高於埃隆·馬斯克,比去年增長了829%。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,影響未來資產負債表狀況的是河南宇光金鉛有限公司的收益。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。因此,我們總是檢查息稅前利潤中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在過去的三年中,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的總自由現金流爲負。對於自由現金流不可靠的公司來說,債務風險要大得多,因此股東應該希望過去的支出能夠在未來產生自由現金流。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Henan Yuguang Gold&LeadLtd (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

從表面上看,河南宇光金鉛有限公司的總負債水平使我們對該股持初步看法,其與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的淨負債並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具吸引力。但至少它在用息稅前利潤支付利息支出方面相當不錯;這令人鼓舞。總體而言,我們認爲可以公平地說,河南宇光金鉛有限公司有足夠的債務,資產負債表上存在一些實際風險。如果一切順利,這應該會提高回報,但另一方面,債務會增加永久資本損失的風險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了河南宇光金鉛有限公司的 2 個警告標誌(1 個有點不愉快!)在這裏投資之前,您應該注意這一點。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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