Incident: The company announced its 2023 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve operating income of 122,963 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 12.88% after adjustment, to achieve net profit attributable to mother of 1,029 million yuan, an increase of 12.82% after adjustment, to achieve net profit of 785 million yuan without return to mother, and an increase of 3.03% after adjustment.
On a quarterly basis, the 23Q4 single quarter is expected to achieve operating income of 26.902 billion yuan, an increase of about 3% year on year, and net profit to mother of 134 million yuan, an increase of about 3% year on year. (Since the company did not disclose the 22Q4 adjusted data, the growth rate for the single quarter was calculated before the adjustment)
The supply chain+industrial chain is two-wheel drive, and the quality of operation continues to improve. According to the company's performance forecast, (1) Supply Chain Sector: In 2023, under insufficient demand and downward market pressure, the company will continue to optimize the market structure and product structure and increase the operation of high-value-added products. We expect to boost the gross profit margin of the supply chain sector. (2) Industrial chain sector: While consolidating its advantages in overseas markets, the company vigorously explores the domestic market. We expect the industrial chain sector to continue to contribute to increased performance.
Since the beginning of the year '24, good news has spread, and the business has blossomed a lot. According to the official account of Sumeda Co., Ltd., (1) Shipping business: As of January 18, the shipping subsidiary successfully delivered 4 ships and signed a contract with the Japanese shipowner Kasuga Shipping to build 2 Crown 63 3.0 bulk carriers (the first order to enter the Japanese market). The total number of Crown 63 3.0 bulk carriers received reached 62, and the order covered the second half of 2026. (2) Diesel generators: In January '24, the company successfully signed the Saudi NEOM New Future City project (a major strategic project invested by the Saudi Arabian government), which will provide multiple sets of diesel generators, and the company's “Belt and Road” cooperation continues to deepen.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is expected to be 123 billion yuan, 132.9 billion yuan, and 143.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.9%, 8.1%, and 8.3% respectively; net profit to mother is estimated to be 1.03 billion yuan, 1.17 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 13.3%, and 16.3% respectively. We maintain our judgment that the reasonable value of the company is 9.29 yuan/share, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Demand for commodities fluctuates, market competition is fierce, and overseas markets and exchange rates fluctuate.