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百融云-W(6608.HK)展望2024:继续看好其规模和利润双成长的持续动能

BairongYun-W (6608.HK) looks forward to 2024: continue to be optimistic about the continued momentum of growth in both scale and profit

海通國際 ·  Feb 7, 2024 00:00

2023 performance preview: The company performed well in the first three quarters of 2023, and total revenue increased 33% year over year. Given the good foundation of the first three quarters, we expect the company's annual revenue growth rate to stabilize between 25% and 30% in '23, and the net profit margin to reach 10% to 15%.

2024 outlook: The company's business characteristics are strong and resilient (when the economy is good, due to the expansion of credit scale, scoring mechanisms and accurate marketing services; when the economy is bad, due to the rising bad debt rate of financial institutions, it is even more necessary to find high-quality customers), and the support of a new wealth management circuit, we believe that the company's performance can continue to grow steadily in 24 years. Under conservative circumstances, total revenue can remain between 20% and 25%, and in an optimistic situation, it can continue to grow by 25% to 30%. Among them, the MaaS business continues to grow steadily, the BaaS business is growing rapidly, and the insurance business is growing at a slow rate, while the net profit margin may be the same or higher than in '23.

MaaS business scale: According to simple calculations, the company has served about 7,000 customers, and its core customers have been around 200 in '22 (revenue contribution of more than 300,000 yuan). According to the company's data, a large customer can contribute about 30 million in revenue, and the market size is about 6 billion dollars (30 million x 200). If the core customers reach 300, the market size is about 10 billion. In other words, when the penetration rate of core customers is not high, the company still has a lot of room for MaaS growth, and the business scale is between 6 and 10 billion dollars. Currently, the MaaS business is the center of the company's profit growth.

The BaaS business is the driving force: the market is just getting started, and it is a business opportunity that the company has discovered in its own iteration. Its core is that a vertical voice robot intelligently reaches users. The biggest difference from other voice robots is that the combination of MaaS+BaaS enables intelligent and accurate sales, which not only achieves cost reduction and efficiency in a general sense, but is also responsible for results (revenue generation and monetization). The market is huge. The corporate credit matching scale was only 26 billion dollars in '22. According to central bank statistics, RMB loans increased by about $21 trillion in '22. The banking wealth management sector also has a market size of tens of trillions of dollars. Currently, the BaaS business is the center of the company's growth in scale.

Currently, judging from the competitive performance of the market, the company has become a leading company in the field of intelligent scoring SaaS and has extended to other non-financial fields, while the AI intelligent sales field is growing rapidly, and we are optimistic about its continued momentum of growth in both scale and profit.

Risk warning: The regulatory nature of the company's big data management and use; the risk of unforeseen events due to data security affecting the company's reputation; competitive pressure from other financial AI companies causing the company's revenue and net profit to fall short of expectations; the risk of bank customers' dependency on external procurement services causing the company to lose major customers, which in turn affects the company's performance; and other financial policy risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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