The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that on February 6, Beijing adjusted and optimized commercial housing sales policies in Tongzhou District: Four categories of households eligible to buy a home in Beijing can buy a commercial home in Tongzhou District. The biggest change in the new policy is that families that have settled and worked in Tongzhou District can only comply with Beijing's overall purchase restriction policy, and the requirement to complete 3 years to settle down, social security, or pay taxes has been abolished. The bank believes that Beijing is now quickly following up with Guangzhou and Shanghai, implementing property market optimization policies, and continuously verifying the general direction of demand loosening. The bank is optimistic that the purchase restriction policy will be strengthened and continued to be loosened, thereby effectively boosting market confidence and promoting the industry to return to a steady upward trajectory.

Target aspects: The beneficiaries of this policy include Wuyi (000797.SZ) and Financial Street (000402.SZ), China. Core concerns: Poly Development (600048.SH), Tiandi Source (600665.SH), I Love My Family (000560.SZ), Pudong Jinqiao (600639.SH).

Fangzheng Securities's views are as follows:

Due to district policies to promote a reasonable release of demand, families settling down or working are no longer “double limited.”

On August 19, 2015, Beijing issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Sales Management of Commercial Housing in Tongzhou District”. In addition to the city-wide purchase restriction policy, families settled and employed in Tongzhou District also proposed an additional “double limit” requirement of 3 years for settlement, social security, or tax payment, making it the first purchase restriction measure introduced in the country for parts of the city directly under the Central Government. The new policy abolishes the requirement that some people need to settle down, pay social security, or pay taxes for 3 years before they can buy a house in Tongzhou. However, they still need to comply with Beijing's overall purchase restriction policy, which can promote the balance of employment and residence in the Tongzhou sub-center to a certain extent and better meet the reasonable housing needs of the working population in the Tongzhou region.

Beijing quickly followed up and implemented the property market optimization policy, and is optimistic that purchase restrictions will continue to be loosened.

On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Construction meeting clearly granted full local autonomy at the local level. Since then, Guangzhou and Shanghai have successively optimized purchase restriction policies, confirming that autonomous regulation rights at the local level have been fully granted. The bank mentioned in the January 31 external report “Demand Relaxation and Continued Verification, Shanghai Relieves Purchase Restrictions Outside the Outer Ring Road”: “Other first-tier cities are expected to follow up at an accelerated pace.” This time, Beijing's optimization of the Tongzhou District purchase restriction policy is in line with expectations. However, judging from the strength of the loosening of purchase restriction policies in various first-tier cities, apart from Guangzhou's lifting of purchase restrictions for large apartments over 120 square meters, the Beijing and Shanghai policies still have a lot of room for strength. At the same time, Shenzhen may speed up implementation of relevant optimization policies.

The Beijing property market is sensitive to policies, and trading volume is expected to continue to recover.

On December 14, 2023, Beijing implemented demand-side optimization policies such as ① reducing the down payment ratio; ② reducing mortgage interest rates; ③ easing general housing standards. After the implementation of the New Deal, according to the data side, the new housing market in Beijing ended the continuous negative year-on-year slump in transaction area since August 2023. It changed from negative to positive year-on-year in December, recording +17.6%, and commercial residential transactions recorded 690,200 square meters. The bank believes that there is sufficient rigidity and improved demand in Beijing, and the release of demand is more sensitive to the implementation of the policy. Beijing's optimization of the Tongzhou District purchase restriction policy will help the Beijing property market continue to recover. Among them, the Financial Street Wuyi Rongyu Project has maintained the top sales position in Tongzhou District for a long time, and this new policy may further promote the elimination of the project.

Policies have been introduced intensively to effectively boost market confidence and promote the industry to return to a steady upward trajectory.

Second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities began to rise continuously in mid-2023, which may indicate that demand for structured property purchases in first-tier cities is still strong. However, demand-side concerns about credit risk of housing enterprises may be one of the core factors affecting their demand in the new housing market. The bank believes that with the continuous implementation of real estate financing coordination mechanisms at the local level, industry credit may be repaired at an accelerated pace, compounded by the continued loosening of purchase restriction policies, and the first-tier property market is expected to continue to pick up.

Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations; the stock market may be at risk of adjustment; the recovery of the property market falls short of expectations.