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智翔金泰(688443):自免赛道百舸争流 国产新星鹏路翱翔

Zhixiang Jintai (688443): Free from the circuit, competes for the rising domestic star Peng, soars on the road

德邦證券 ·  Feb 7

A leading domestic autoimmune enterprise, the innovative platform drives the company's long-term steady development. Established in 2015 and listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2023, Zhixiang Jintai is an innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company. It continues to develop monoclonal antibody drugs and bispecific antibody drugs around the three major treatment fields of autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases and tumors. The efficient and leading antibody drug discovery technology platform helps the company innovate and develop in the long term. Backed by the star vaccine company Zhifei Biotech, the company has a natural advantage in terms of industrial resources.

Celizumab (GR1501) is about to be approved and is expected to be the first domestically produced IL-17A monoclonal antibody to be marketed. The marketing application for celizumab for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis was accepted in March 2023, and the product is about to be approved; in addition, for axial spondyloarthritis, the NDA declaration was accepted in January 2024.

Domestic sales of the imported drug scuchiumab with the same target were about 3.5 billion yuan in '22, and the growth momentum is strong. The company's non-head-to-head efficacy of celizumab is superior to that of imported drugs, and progress is in the first tier of domestic production. It has a first-mover advantage, and future sales can be expected.

GR1802 (IL-4rA monoclonal antibody) targets the market of tens of millions of patients, and there is huge space. Phase III clinical trials for GR1802 indications for atopic dermatitis began in November 2023, and the three indications of asthma/chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps/chronic spontaneous urticaria are in phase II clinical trials. The IL4ra target covers a wide range of indications. Indications such as atopic dermatitis, asthma, and chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps total more than 10 million people. Clinical trials of multiple GR1802 indications are being carried out simultaneously. The R&D progress is at the forefront of the country, and future market potential is expected to be broad.

GR1801 is the world's first and only double epitope antibody against rabies virus to enter clinical trials. The GR1801 mechanism provides immediate immune protection during the window between the first dose of rabies vaccine and before the body produces sufficient amounts of antibodies. There are about 16 million people exposed to rabies grade III in China every year. Of these, only about 15% use passive immunization agents, which is a huge gap. GR1801 has no risk of infection with bloodborne diseases, is safer, and has a high yield. It is currently in phase III clinical trials and is expected to be approved for domestic marketing by the end of 2025.

Profit forecasting and valuation. The company has unique technical advantages, and major products are about to be commercialized. The estimated revenue for 2023-2025 is $0.09 billion, and $405 million, respectively. Calculated using the DCF method, assuming a sustainable growth rate of 2%, WACC of 9.81%, the reasonable equity value of the company was 17.7 billion yuan, and the corresponding stock price was 48.38 yuan; the first coverage gave the company a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of clinical development failure, risk of deteriorating competitive landscape, risk of sales falling short of expectations, industry policy risk, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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