The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that according to the wind power plans of various countries, overseas landwind installed capacity CAGR is expected to be 5% and the seabreeze installed CAGR is 32% in 23-25. Continued optimism about the ocean breeze sector continues to drive the dual flexibility of performance and valuation. There are no concerns about unit profit fluctuations in the short term, opening up space for medium- to long-term overseas+deep-sea incremental markets. The main line of investment is still a target that can benefit from high domestic sea breezes and increased quantitative flexibility in exports.

Recommended [Oriental Cable] (603606.SH): Submarine cable leaders have obvious geographical advantages, and domestic and overseas efforts are making concerted efforts. [Taisheng Wind Energy] (300129.SZ): Domestic sea wind is expected to be released in 24, and overseas sea wind orders are expected to reach 0 to 1. It is recommended to pay attention to [Daikin Heavy Industries] (002487.SZ): Exporting Alpha brings high profit and flexibility.

▌The main views of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Review: Driven by performance realization+forward-looking indicators (approval/bidding), the decline in the full year of '23 was 28%. The impact of the decline in EPS was greater than that of PE.

In '23, the indicators that the market focused on the Haifeng sector changed to performance realization+forward-looking indicators (approval/bidding), which brought about two waves of market:

Performance delivery - Q1 performance is high year-on-year. It is expected that the prosperity of the Q2 industry will increase → 23 results are expected to be realized one after another, with wind power growth of 10% > 4% in the market;

The forward-looking indicators were fulfilled - at the end of September, Haifeng ushered in the progress of the Jiangsu & Guangdong project: approval of the Three Gorges Dafeng project, bidding for the Qingzhou 666kV submarine cable → the boom continued to rise in 24 years, with wind power growth of 6% > -5% of the market.

Demand forecast: short term - domestic wind installed capacity 10GW+ (yoy +67%) in 24 years, medium to long term - domestic deep sea high ceiling+overseas European strength.

Short-term - Domestic: The installed capacity of the land wind is expected to be 65 GW (yoy +18%) in 24 years, and the installed capacity of the sea breeze is 10 GW+ (yoy +67%). As a forward-looking indicator & the end of the sea breeze, the sea landscape is expected to continue to improve.

Medium- and long-term - domestic: Offshore wind power is not limited by land resources, etc., and is close to the power load center, and as of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic sea wind is 30GW+, accounting for only 1% of the potential exploitable volume of ocean wind.

Short-term - Overseas: The high export growth of wind power companies confirms the trend of increasing demand for installed wind power overseas from month to month. Leading tower, casting, and rotor companies - Daikin Heavy Industries, Sun Moon Co., Ltd., and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. have all seen a clear month-on-month increase in the share of overseas revenue in the past two years: in the case of Daikin Heavy Industries, the share of overseas revenue in 2023H1 increased markedly to 44% (previously below 20%).

Medium to long-term - Overseas: According to the wind power plans of each country, it is estimated that overseas land wind installed capacity CAGR will be 5% and sea wind installed CAGR will be 32% in 23-25 years. Continued optimism about the ocean breeze sector continues to drive the dual flexibility of performance and valuation. There are no concerns about unit profit fluctuations in the short term, opening up space for medium- to long-term overseas+deep-sea incremental markets. The main line of investment is still a target that can benefit from high domestic sea breezes and increased quantitative flexibility in exports.

Risk warning:

The installed volume of wind power falls short of expectations; there is a high risk of bulk price fluctuations; technology research and development falls short of expectations; capacity expansion falls short of expectations; the impact on the international trade environment; estimates are subjective and are for reference only.