The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in response to the investment opportunities brought about by the catalysis of the perovskite battery industrialization incident, there are currently three main directions: direction 1 is to provide coating equipment, coating equipment, or key laser equipment manufacturers that can provide the preparation of various functional layers of perovskite. The focus is on recommending Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), and Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ); direction 2 is about companies that are expected to benefit from changes in packaging systems brought about by perovskite industrialization. Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) is recommended; the third direction is a leading manufacturer with relatively leading perovskite production capacity layout, focusing on GCL Technology (03800).

Guojin Securities's views are as follows:

The theoretical ultimate efficiency and laboratory efficiency improvement rate of perovskite batteries are far higher than crystal silicon, and it is expected that N-type batteries will create a new technology cycle in the future:

In the N-type battery era, the N-type battery technology route, which can be mass-produced on a large scale, is approaching the theoretical limit efficiency of single-crystal silicon batteries — 29.4% — at an annualized rate of 0.5%. Looking ahead to the next generation battery technology route, the perovskite battery process stands out due to its theoretical high ultimate efficiency and low cost, and has become the “ultimate” battery technology route currently visible. Under ideal conditions, the theoretical ultimate efficiency of single-junction perovskite batteries reaches 31%, and currently the highest laboratory conversion efficiency is 26%. At the same time, perovskite is a platform-based process, which can be combined with existing N-type TopCon and HJT processes to extend silicon-perovskite laminated battery products based on crystalline silicon batteries. Currently, the theoretical limit of crystalline silicon-perovskite dual-junction batteries can reach 35%, and the maximum laboratory efficiency is 33.7%. From technology introduction to laboratory efficiency exceeding 25%, perovskite batteries have only been used for 10 years, while crystalline silicon batteries have gone through 60 years of research and development, which is enough to show the potential of perovskite to improve efficiency and bright future application scenarios.

Unlike perovskite battery equipment, traditional crystalline silicon battery core equipment manufacturers have a first-mover advantage:

In the production of typical perovskite batteries, the battery/module process has gone through four deposition processes and four times of laser engraving. The value and importance of laser equipment and coating equipment have increased significantly compared to crystalline silicon batteries. As far as traditional crystalline silicon cells are concerned, coating and laser processes are no stranger. As crystalline silicon cells develop into the N-type era, high-quality films and their interfaces must be one of the trends in improving the efficiency of photovoltaic cells; at the same time, with the gradual release of xBC production capacity, the stability/process level of laser equipment has improved rapidly, all of which have laid a solid foundation for the development of perovskite battery technology. The difficulty of coating and laser equipment in the perovskite process is further increased on the basis of crystalline silicon. Traditional crystalline silicon battery core equipment manufacturers are expected to use rich equipment debugging experience and leading R&D capabilities to match the new perovskite battery material system and launch corresponding high-performance equipment as soon as possible. Currently, the value of the GW grade perovskite production line is about 600 million yuan, of which coating equipment accounts for nearly 50% of the value and laser equipment accounts for more than 20%. This is a significant increase in value compared to previous crystalline silicon battery production lines. With large-scale investment in mass production of perovskite modules in the future, related equipment companies are expected to directly benefit.

With crystalline silicon as the base and perovskite as the spear, it is expected to achieve a win-win situation for the industry:

The material system and packaging system of pure perovskite batteries are completely different from existing crystalline silicon batteries, so it is a technology that “disrupts the existing industrial system.” However, without having too much impact on the existing industrial chain, crystalline silicon-perovskite batteries can break the efficiency barriers of existing photovoltaic products. At the same time, they have higher theoretical ultimate efficiency compared to single-cell perovskite batteries, so they are expected to become a win-win solution for the industry in the “ultimate” battery technology route.

Industrialization will still take time to focus on catalyzing the titanite battery industrialization incident:

According to the bank's estimates, the cost of single-junction perovskite components in various process scenarios at this stage is about 1.30-1.35 yuan/W, which is still not cost-effective compared to current crystal silicon. As mass production equipment gradually matures, efficiency continues to improve, and longevity and reliability issues are solved, the cost of perovskite components is expected to drop to 0.5-0.6 yuan/W, but no clear time point has yet been seen. If there is a breakthrough on the perovskite pilot line of the mainstream manufacturer that has been laid out on issues such as the longevity and stability of perovskite materials, conversion efficiency of large-scale components, total manufacturing cost, and mass production capacity of the entire perovskite line, it will inevitably be reflected as a surge in the bidding scale of perovskite GW grade production lines in the market, the expansion of the scale of implementation, and the acceleration of construction progress, so it is necessary to keep an eye on related event catalysis.

Risk warning: The industrialization of perovskite falls short of expectations, the cost reduction of perovskite equipment falls short of expectations, and the risk that the cost of crystalline silicon batteries is falling too fast.