Finance Association, Feb. 7 (Reporter Xu Hao) As the Lunar New Year of the Dragon approaches, 15 A-share listed automakers have successively released their 2023 earnings forecasts.

According to statistics from the Financial Federation reporter, 9 out of 15 car companies are expected to make a profit in 2023, accounting for 60%. Among them, BYD has the strongest profitability, and net profit is expected to reach 290 billion to 31 billion yuan, the best performance since its listing. Among the six car companies that have forecasted losses, BAIC Blue Valley is expected to lose the most, at -5.2 billion to -5.7 billion yuan.

In 2023, BYD expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 290 billion yuan to 31 billion yuan, an increase of 74.46%-86.49% over the same period last year; to achieve net profit deducted from 27.4 billion yuan to 29.7 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 75.22% to 89.92% over the previous year.

Regarding the reason for the sharp increase in performance, BYD said, “Within 2023, the NEV industry continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, and the company's NEV sales reached a record high, further consolidating its leading position as the number one NEV sales leader in the world. Despite more intense competition in the industry, the company has achieved significant improvements in profits and demonstrated strong resilience through continuous improvement in brand power, rapid growth in overseas sales, continuous expansion of scale advantages, and strong industrial chain cost control capabilities.”

In 2023, BYD produced a total of 3,0452 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 62.24% over the previous year; it sold a total of 3,024,400 new energy vehicles, an increase of 62.30% over the previous year. With this achievement, BYD successfully placed in the top ten car sales in the world.

The old rival Great Wall Motor was left in a position by BYD. In 2023, Great Wall Motor's total revenue was 173.41 billion yuan, up 26.26% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.08 billion yuan, down 15.22% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 4.682 billion yuan, up 4.58% year on year.

In response to the decline in net profit, Great Wall Motor explained that the net profit for the reporting period was lower than the same period last year mainly due to the impact of exchange rate earnings during the same period. Great Wall Motor also pointed out that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the fourth quarter of 2023 declined month-on-month compared to the third quarter, mainly due to the calculation of year-end bonuses. However, judging from the performance of its main business, Great Wall Motor also has highlights. From January to December 2023, Great Wall Motor sold a total of 1.231,000 vehicles, an increase of 15.29% over the previous year. Among them, overseas sales totaled 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 82.48% over the previous year, reaching a record high.

It is worth noting that in the passenger car sector, car companies have shown a relatively clear division. Although Cyrus and BAIC Blue Valley have become “star companies” in the automotive sector with the support of Huawei. In particular, the market value of Cyrus nearly doubled in 2023, they have not been able to escape the fate of losses.

According to Cyrus's 2023 performance forecast, the company achieved annual revenue of 35.5 billion yuan to 36.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.09% to 7.02% over the previous year, and a net profit loss attributable to owners of the parent company is estimated to be 2.1 billion to 2.7 billion yuan. Cyrus also gave three reasons for the annual loss: the first was that R&D investment in high-end smart electric vehicle core technology and products increased R&D costs and labor costs, which affected current performance; the second was sluggish sales in the first three quarters, and fixed costs and related expenses were high; the third was to increase sales in the fourth quarter, increase market promotion efforts in the first half of the year, and high raw material costs in the first half of the year, which affected current results.

BAIC Blue Valley expects a net profit loss of 5.7 billion to 5.2 billion yuan in 2023 attributable to shareholders of listed companies, for the fourth year in a row. From 2020 to 2022, BAIC Blue Valley lost 6.482 billion yuan, 5.244 billion yuan, and 5.465 billion yuan respectively, with a cumulative loss of more than 20 billion yuan over four years.

JAC is also included in the “Huawei concept stock.” JAC expects to achieve a net profit of 136 million yuan in 2023 attributable to owners of the parent company, which will turn a loss into a profit compared to the same period last year. However, the sale of factory assets by JAC to NIO in 2023 brought it a large amount of revenue. According to the announcement issued earlier, the total price of the factory it sold was 4.577 billion yuan. According to the announcement, net profit for 2023 is expected to lose 1.55 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss.

Furthermore, Haima Motor and Zotye have not improved in their main business, so the loss situation continues. Haima Motor expects a net profit loss of 160 million to 240 million yuan in 2023; Zotye expects a net profit loss of 750 million to 900 million yuan in 2023.

In the commercial vehicle sector, there was a marked recovery in commercial vehicle companies' performance in 2023. Among them, Foton Motor's net profit attributable to owners of the parent company surged 1298% year on year. It is expected to deduct 220 million yuan of non-net profit in 2023, turning a loss into a profit. Regarding the reason for the pre-increase in 2023 performance, Foton Motor said it mainly benefited from main business, new energy, and overseas exports. In 2023, Foton achieved sales volume of 631,000 vehicles, an increase of 37.14% over the previous year. In addition, due to factors such as increased profits and losses from the disposal of non-current assets, the impact on Foton Motor's total profit in 2023 was about 689 million yuan, an increase of about 292 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Jiangling Motors expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1,475 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 61.26% over the previous year. Yutong Bus was 1.4 billion to 900 million yuan, up 85%-150% year on year; FAW Jiefang was 700 million to 800 million yuan, up 90.35%-117.54% year on year.

In addition, Jinlong Motor turned a loss into a profit, while Ankai Bus narrowed its losses. Looking at the overall performance of the commercial vehicle market, China Automobile Association data shows that in 2023, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic commercial vehicle market was 4.031 million vehicles, an increase of 22.1% over the previous year. At the same time, several car companies also mentioned in their 2023 performance forecasts that the recovery in demand in the domestic heavy truck market has become the main factor driving their net profit profit.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2023, the automobile manufacturing industry completed revenue of 10097.58 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% over the previous year, accounting for 7.6% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises above scale; the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry was 508.63 billion yuan, up 5.9% year on year, accounting for 6.6% of the total profit of industrial enterprises above scale. “The profit margin of the automotive industry in 2023 was only 5.0%. Compared with the average profit margin of 5.8% for the entire industrial enterprise, the automotive industry is still low.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, said.