Debt conversion: card times transfer 02 (123238.SZ) basic situation:
A+ grade, listed on February 1, with an issuance scale of 529 million yuan and a placement ratio of 87.02% of old shares. The latest closing price was 113.9 yuan, the conversion premium rate was 70.71%, the pure bond premium rate was 48.48%, and YTM 0.88%.
Original stock: Kapi100 (300863.SZ) Overview:
Specializing in the production of automotive wires and cables, the products are widely used in high-end European, American, Japanese and domestic brands, with a total shareholding of 34.63%, with a total market value of 2,901 billion yuan; net profit of the latest installment was +25.17%, after deducting non-PE TTM 18.15x and PB (MRQ) 2.52x, all at the lowest level in the last 5 years.
Main highlights:
New energy line business: The voltage of new energy vehicles has increased from 400V to 800V, further improving the performance requirements for wiring and cable transmission capacity, insulation protection, and electromagnetic compatibility. Demand for functions such as autonomous driving and intelligent connectivity is increasing, and high-speed cable usage, data transmission speed, and value are also increasing at the same time. The Kabeyi New Energy Line business currently accounts for about 10% of revenue, and will continue to benefit from the trend of intelligent vehicle electrification in the future.
General wire business: Kabeyi is a leading domestic automobile cable brand and independent brand. It has obtained certification from mainstream automakers such as Volkswagen, GM, BMW, Daimler-Benz, Volvo, Land Rover, SAIC, GAC, Geely, etc., to provide long-term stable supporting services for well-known automobile wiring companies such as Yazaki and Anbofu. The business volume and gross margin are stable. At the same time, it is expected to benefit from domestic substitution and increased market share of independent brands.
The production capacity bottleneck is about to be broken through: the current debt conversion fund was mainly used for the Hubei Kabeyi production base project (250 million yuan), the Ninghai automobile cable expansion project (200 million yuan), and the automobile cable insulation material renovation and expansion project (99 million yuan). This expansion of production will effectively solve the company's production capacity bottleneck, and at the same time make up for the company's production capacity gap in central China. Combined with the existing Chengdu base, it will basically achieve the strategic layout of major economic belts and automobile industry clusters in Southwest China, Central China, Northeast China, and Southeast China.
Strong cost transfer capacity and steady growth in performance: The automotive wiring harness industry is highly concentrated. As a Tier 2 supplier with long-term cooperation, Kabeyi can smoothly transfer the fluctuating pressure of copper prices downstream. Compared with the wiring industry, Ka Beiyi's gross margin has increased steadily, cost control capabilities are good, and management efficiency is high. WIND unanimously expects net profit to be +41.61%, +37.22%, and +33.85% year-on-year in 2023-25, respectively.
Reasonable valuation derivation of convertible bonds: Based on the valuation model of Mountain Securities convertible bonds, assuming that the underlying stock price remains unchanged, based on BSM, binary tree, and MC simulations, we believe that the reasonable valuation of card times conversion 02 is 115-125 yuan.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly, automobile sales fall short of expectations, NEV market expansion falls short of expectations, etc.