Incident: The company released its 2023 performance forecast. The company's 2023 revenue is estimated to be about 4.2 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan (-36.14% ~ -40.39%), net profit to mother of 80 million yuan to 110 million yuan (-86.30% ~ -90.04%), net profit of 75 million yuan to 110 million yuan (-84.67% to -89.55%) after deducting net profit from non-mother.
Regular business resumed a steady development trend. As the impact of the public health incident gradually dissipated, the revenue from the company's COVID-19 testing business declined sharply compared to the same period in 2022, and the company then took the initiative to strategically adjust the product structure and supply chain strategy of its main business. Excluding the impact of COVID-19, regular business growth in 2023 was about 20%.
Among them, the revenue from the reproductive health business and the multiomics business increased slightly year-on-year, and revenue from cancer prevention and control achieved significant year-on-year growth.
The business layout is gradually becoming clear, and seize the opportunity to rise strongly. The company's business layout includes 5 major business segments, including reproductive health services, tumor prevention and control services, pathogen infection services, multi-omics big data and synthesis services, and comprehensive solutions for accurate medical testing. With years of continuous high investment in R&D, new products in various sectors have been continuously approved.
In terms of product development and performance optimization, the company's HALOS cancer genetic testing data analysis and interpretation all-in-one machine, PMSeq CNV analysis process and drug resistance database were newly upgraded; among them, in the reproductive health business, 200+ non-invasive prenatal tests for monogenic diseases were launched to further prevent and control birth defects; in terms of infection prevention and control, the new TNGs testing products “PTSeq and PTSeq Plus target high-throughput genetic testing for respiratory infectious pathogens”; in terms of chronic disease prevention and control, Alzheimer's disease risk genetic testing ( APOE genotyping testing), genetic testing for risk of early-onset coronary heart disease, genetic testing for cardiovascular disease drugs, cognitive impairment disease genetic testing products, and neurological autoimmune antibody testing series products were officially launched.
Overseas localization platforms are fully deployed to provide medical testing services throughout the life cycle. In terms of international business development, the company relies on the public health prevention and control platform established in early overseas business, and continues to transform into full-life medical testing service capabilities for reproductive health, cancer prevention and control, infection prevention and control, chronic disease prevention and control, etc., and is actively expanding overseas business based on the qualifications and quality systems of many overseas entry products already in reserve. In 2023, the company opened an independent clinical laboratory jointly established with Saudi Tibbiyah and formally signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Saudi Public Health Authority (PHA); in addition, the company reached a number of cooperation intentions and agreements with medical institutions, research institutes and other partners in Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Serbia, which further promoted the promotion and application of the company's precision medicine technology in the global market.
The company's fully automatic medical PCR analysis system PM EasyLab and the three infectious test kits used with it obtained market entry qualifications from the Thai Food and Drug Administration and the Saudi Food and Drug Administration, the trifecta test kit for infectious diseases obtained the Australian market entry qualification, and COLOTECT bowel cancer testing products obtained the Malaysian market entry qualification.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's apparent revenue growth rate is expected to be 5% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, maintaining a “holding” rating.
Risk warning: Policy risks, competition exacerbates risks, and new business development may be affected by factors such as policy risks and the international situation.