The company issued a performance forecast, and the full year's results are expected to rise at the same time. According to the company's 2023 performance forecast, net profit due to mother in 2023 is expected to be 0.9 to 120 million yuan, +102.9% to 170.6% year over year; net profit after deducting non-net profit is estimated to be 0.7 to 100 million yuan, +131.6% to 228.1% year over year.
The charging pile industry continues to be booming, and the company's profits are growing rapidly. In 2023, the company achieved rapid growth in sales in the fields of charging modules and smart grids. The company's charging module revenue and gross margin increased year-on-year, driving a sharp increase in revenue and net profit. The charging pile industry is booming. According to the China Charging Alliance official account data, as of December 2023, the number of domestic public piles was 2,726 million, and 929,000 new domestic piles were added in 2023, +42.7% over the same period last year. The company's profit grew rapidly. Among them, Q4's net profit for the single quarter was 0.2 to 50 million yuan, -4.0% to +118.2% year-on-year, -22.8% to +75.4% month-on-month; after deducting non-net profit of 0.2 to 0.5 billion yuan, -6.9% to +129.9% year-on-year, and -29.8% to +73.3% month-on-month.
The company's charging module position is stable, and the product continues to be iteratively upgraded. The company's main business in the field of new energy vehicles includes: 1) Charging power supplies for charging and switching stations: Charging modules are the core of the field. Existing products are mainly 20kW high-voltage wide power modules that meet the “six unification” standards of the State Grid and 30kW and 40kW high-voltage power modules for the off-grid market. The charging voltage can reach 1000V, and the charging power can meet the different needs of 20kW to 960kW; 2) Thermal management power supplies: Existing products are mainly on-board DC-DC converters that supply power to battery thermal management systems for electric heavy trucks. In 2023, the company continued to strengthen the first-mover advantage of the 20kW State Grid's “six unified” high-voltage fast charging products. 40kW cost-effective products are highly competitive in the market, and 30kW products with high power density have been mass-produced and introduced to the market, doubly increasing cost performance and reliability.
The smart grid business is operating steadily, and the special aviation business is expected to improve. The core products of the company's smart grid are power supply modules for power operation, covering DC 220V and 110V voltage levels, two product categories for self-cooling and air cooling, and various power levels from 0.8 kW to 12 kW. The market share has been in the leading position in the industry for a long time. The company's current products in the aerospace specialty field are mainly small to medium power power modules, power modules and customized power supplies. The supply-side and demand-side changes in the aerospace specialty field during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period have strongly supported the booming development of the industry, and the company's business in this field is expected to improve.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 1.07/1.61/257 billion yuan in 2023-2025, respectively, and the corresponding EPS of 0.61/0.93/1.48 yuan, respectively. We believe that charging modules are the core components of charging piles and have high barriers. The company's charging modules are leading in strength. With the acceleration of high-power charging pile construction and exports, the company's charging modules have broad room for growth. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 20-25 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 18.54-23.17 yuan, maintaining the company's “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Charging pile construction falls short of expectations, overseas demand falls short of expectations, and charging module prices have dropped sharply.