Gelonghui, Feb. 4 | Cathay Pacific Junan released a research report saying that maintaining China Eastern Airlines' “gain” rating, the target price was HK$5. Considering the 23Q4 volume price drop, the net profit forecast for 2023 was lowered to -75 (previously -35) billion yuan, and the net profit forecast for 2024/25 was 95/10.5 billion yuan. The company's performance report estimates net profit to be -68 to -8.3 billion yuan in 2023. Among them, the net profit for the 23Q3 high oil price order season exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, a record high; 23Q4 had significant losses due to seasonal changes/weather/off-season, etc., and market expectations were sufficient. The bank believes that China's aviation consumption is still in its infancy. The three characteristics of low penetration, low frequency, and high public commerce determine good resilience, and current demand expectations may be too pessimistic. Aviation demand resumed growth in the first half of January 2024, and the recent pre-sale trend for the Spring Festival travel season was good. Passenger traffic during the 2024 Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach a record high, and the increase in ticket prices compared to 2019 is expected to exceed the 2023 summer travel season, which is expected to catalyze an improvement in market demand expectations.