The first coverage gives an “gain” rating. The company's 2023-2025 EPS is expected to be 1.58/1.85/1.99 yuan, corresponding to 2023-2025 PE of 20/17/16 times. Optimistic about traffic improvements and affordable travel trends, passenger traffic in the famous mountains and rivers will benefit, and the target price will be 39.67 yuan, increasing the amount of money.
Traffic improvements have been significant, which is expected to drive an increase in off-season passenger traffic. ① The company's core catalyst comes from three major transportation improvements: first, the opening of the Chihuang High Speed Rail in June 2024 will significantly improve the lack of public transportation in the Jiuhuashan Scenic Area. The new Jiuhuashan Station will greatly improve access efficiency and connect core scenic spots such as Jiuhua, Taiping Lake, and Huangshan; second, after the renovation and expansion of Jiuhuashan Airport in July 2024, it is expected that the passenger flow throughput will increase from 500,000 to 1.9 million people in the long term. The increase in scheduling will significantly reduce the travel threshold for long-distance passengers and increase the frequency of repurchases; the third is that the Wuhuashan High Speed Rail Link will significantly reduce the travel threshold for long-distance passengers and increase the frequency of repurchases; third, the total number of repurchases will be increased from 500,000 to 1.9 million people. Later, it is expected that the east-west passenger flow will be fully opened; ② considering tradition The operating leverage of the scenic area is high. Combined with the company's revenue for the four quarters, it is expected to achieve higher passenger flow and performance flexibility after the opening of traffic.
Marginal restoration of the tourism market, rigid support from Buddhist prayer groups. ① The long-distance travel chain was more flexible after the epidemic. After the epidemic, free ticket preferential policies for major scenic spots continued to increase, thus benefiting significantly from the boom in affordable travel; ② Jiuhua Mountain, where the company is located, is one of the four famous Buddhist mountains, and the Buddha community is very sticky, and there is some support and guarantee in the face of a high base in 2023.
The completion of the traffic conversion center is expected to raise the maximum carrying capacity. ① In February 2024, the Jiuhuashan Tourist Service Center was renovated and expanded. After completion, the number of parking spaces will reach 5,566 cars (less than 2,000 cars in the past) and meet the needs of 5,000 people/hour for tourist transfers, consultation, and integrated intelligent services; ② Various tasks in the Lion Peak Scenic Area are progressing in an orderly manner.
Risk warning: demand recovery falls short of expectations, travel cost compression, weather uncertainty