Minfeng Special Paper Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600235) shares have had a horrible month, losing 25% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 20% in that time.
Although its price has dipped substantially, Minfeng Special PaperLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 62.2x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 27x and even P/E's below 17x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Earnings have risen firmly for Minfeng Special PaperLtd recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Minfeng Special PaperLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 23%. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 53% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Minfeng Special PaperLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Even after such a strong price drop, Minfeng Special PaperLtd's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Minfeng Special PaperLtd revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Minfeng Special PaperLtd with six simple checks.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Minfeng Special PaperLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.