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Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600561) Looks Inexpensive After Falling 28% But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 3 06:10

Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600561) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 28% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 19% in that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, when close to half the companies operating in China's Transportation industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 2.1x, you may consider Jiangxi Changyun as an enticing stock to check out with its 0.9x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600561 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 2nd 2024

What Does Jiangxi Changyun's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Jiangxi Changyun's revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think this benign revenue growth rate will likely underperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Jiangxi Changyun, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Jiangxi Changyun's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Jiangxi Changyun's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 20% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 20% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that Jiangxi Changyun is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

Jiangxi Changyun's recently weak share price has pulled its P/S back below other Transportation companies. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Jiangxi Changyun confirms that the company's shrinking revenue over the past medium-term is a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, given the industry is projected to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Jiangxi Changyun that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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