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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Liuzhou Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600423) Shares After Tumbling 28%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 3 06:12

Liuzhou Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600423) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 28% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 26% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for thinking Liuzhou Chemical Industry is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 16.8x, considering almost half the companies in China's Chemicals industry have P/S ratios below 1.9x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600423 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 2nd 2024

What Does Liuzhou Chemical Industry's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For instance, Liuzhou Chemical Industry's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Liuzhou Chemical Industry, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Liuzhou Chemical Industry would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 10%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 20% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Liuzhou Chemical Industry is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Liuzhou Chemical Industry's P/S

Even after such a strong price drop, Liuzhou Chemical Industry's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Liuzhou Chemical Industry revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Liuzhou Chemical Industry is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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