Incident: The company released the main operating data for 2023. In 2023, it achieved total revenue of about 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 22.46%, achieved net profit of about 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 12.93%, and successfully completed the first phase of the equity incentive performance assessment. It is expected that in 2023, the total revenue for Q4 will be about 259 million yuan, an increase of about 36.61% year on year, achieving net profit to mother of about -21 million yuan, and a reduction in loss margin.
The province consolidates development within and outside the province, and focuses on the core product series. In terms of product structure: The company focuses on upgrading the product structure and cultivating core products, focusing on the virtues of people at the price of 100-200 yuan, actively seizing competitive share and driving restorative growth in the provincial market; actively launched Family Ethics, focusing on 200-300 yuan to fill the gap in the price band within the province and actively lead the upgrading of consumption in the province. The Gansu market focuses on large export-oriented core products, and the product structure has been significantly optimized. Regionally: Actively explore markets outside the province. The growth rate of markets outside the province, such as Gansu and Beijing companies, is higher than within the province, and the growth space continues to expand; with high-quality resources, the Shanxi dotted market continues to achieve major breakthroughs, and the path for market development outside the province is more clear.
Actively promote organizational change, and improve management potential significantly. In terms of organizational structure: In order to further deepen the “marketing transformation”, the company integrated the former outreach department and marketing center related business into a large customer service department. The changed organizational structure will be more conducive to focusing on high-quality resources to develop group buying customers; in 2023, the company launched a total of 524 “Famous Wines into Famous Enterprises” activities, and the brand power increased significantly. In the consumption scenario: Actively seize the restorative growth dividends of consumption scenarios such as banquets and travel; plan selection activities such as family style and family ethics, actively create a “brand+public welfare” activity model, and continuously enrich the content of brand culture.
The marketing transformation has achieved remarkable results, and the incentives are sufficient and full of motivation. The company continues to promote marketing transformation and optimize the incentive model, and the pace of deep adjustment is remarkable: 1. Adhering to the idea of “marketing socialization and brand emotionalization”, the marketing work is consumer-centered, and communication with consumers is strengthened through “please come and go out”, “famous wine into famous enterprises”, and new media communication, and brand influence has been significantly strengthened. 2. Deepen event marketing and promote the Tianyoude brand through events such as competition sponsorship, “food+wine” tastings, and major conference sponsorship; breakthroughs have also been achieved in live streaming and e-commerce platform performance, and brand popularity continues to rise. 3. Innovate the “1+3N” marketing model, dig deeper into dealer group buying resources, focus on promoting dealer transformation; focus on superior resources to fully develop markets outside the provinces of Jin, Shan, Yu, etc., and actively expand growth space. 4. The company's equity incentives have been implemented, with an award price of 7.12 yuan. The revenue assessment targets for 2023-2025 are 1,176 billion yuan, 1,372 billion yuan, and 1,568 billion yuan respectively. The incentives are in place, the operating potential is strong, and the company's long-term growth capacity is promising.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. EPS is expected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively in 2023-2025, corresponding to PE of 62 times, 27 times, and 21 times, respectively. The company benefits from consumption upgrades within the province and market development outside the province, is optimistic about the company's long-term growth capacity, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expected risks, and consumption recovery falls short of expected risks.