Key points of investment
Event: The company released its 2023 performance forecast. In 2023, the company achieved net profit of 20 to 30 million yuan, and net profit loss after deduction of 18 to 28 million yuan; of these, Q4 Company's net profit to mother is estimated to be -45.5776 million yuan to -5.5776 million yuan.
The management structure has been optimized, and the share of distribution has been further increased. The company actively explores new market areas, continues to vigorously develop the dealer model, sinks through channels, increases regional sales resources, vigorously expands the broad market for industrial buildings, municipal buildings, and civil buildings, and maintains rapid growth in revenue from distribution channels. At the same time, the company strengthened customer risk identification and protection measures, and actively reduced orders from some high-risk real estate customers. The share of the real estate business declined further on the basis of the rapid decline in 2022.
Gross margin rebounded, and impairment accruals affected current profit. In terms of gross margin, the company's comprehensive gross margin improved year-on-year in 2023, but due to continued pressure on the real estate industry, the company followed the principle of prudence and fully calculated impairment provisions for some real estate customers on assets showing signs of impairment in accordance with accounting standards. Q4, the company's net profit to mother ranged from 45.5776 million yuan to -55.5776 million yuan.
TMP integrated tiles are highly economical and are expected to be rapidly promoted in industrial and commercial buildings. Based on the excellent performance and R&D advantages of polymer materials produced by imported production lines, the company has developed “full-life cycle photovoltaic roof systems” and integrated tile systems for industrial and commercial photovoltaic roof use scenarios. Under the requirements of the new waterproof regulations, the waterproofing of metal roofs is required to have no less than two waterproof channels above grade 2, and the waterproof membrane should not be less than one. The company's existing TMP fusion tile products target the chemical corrosion resistance of traditional steel roofs, and combine the exposed TPO waterproof membrane with galvanized coil steel through a special processing process to achieve the integration of anti-corrosion and waterproofing, effectively extending the life of steel roofs. At the same time, it can also meet the requirements of the new waterproof regulations, and is an economical and functional choice.
Profit forecasting and investment rating: The company competes for polymer waterproof membranes and continuously increases R&D investment to improve technical strength. As waterproof standards are raised, polymer waterproof membranes continue to penetrate, and there is a lot of room for improvement in product demand. Considering the slow recovery in downstream demand, we lowered the company's forecast for 2023-2025 net profit of 0.25/1.84 billion yuan (previous value was 1.43/2.39/349 million yuan), and the corresponding PE was 152X/20X/14X, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in the real estate industry; risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; increased risk of industry competition; risk of accounts receivable; risk of equity pledges.