Incident: The company released its 2023 performance forecast: The company expects to achieve net profit of 28.12-2,862 billion yuan in 2023, up 12.5%-14.5% year-on-year, and achieve net profit of 27.35-2,783 billion yuan, up 13.5%-15.5% year on year; looking at Q4 alone, 23Q4 will achieve net profit of 623 to 673 million yuan, an increase of 20%-30% year on year, and achieve net profit without return to mother of 575-623 million yuan, an increase of 13%-23% year on year.
In terms of pharmaceutical business: By stabilizing the in-hospital market and expanding the out-of-hospital market, the pharmaceutical industry maintained steady growth in 2023. The 23Q1-Q3 industry sector achieved revenue of 8.99 billion yuan/yoy +9.5%.
The pharmaceutical business sector achieved revenue of 20.29 billion yuan/yoy +7.0% in 23Q1-Q3. The short-term impact of external factors may still be on the profit side.
In terms of medical and aesthetic business: The overall medical and aesthetic business continues to develop rapidly, with revenue at the highest level in history, and domestic and foreign businesses have achieved good profits, making a positive contribution to the company's overall performance. Specifically: (1) Domestic medical and aesthetic medicine: We expect that in 23Q4, Yi Yanshi is expected to maintain a stable month-on-month Q3 revenue, 23 to achieve revenue of about 1.1 billion dollars throughout the year, and is expected to continue to maintain a relatively good growth rate. Approval of new products will continue to boost growth certainty over the next 25-26 years; (2) Overseas medical and aesthetic: as the scale of the overseas medical and aesthetic business is gradually increasing the scale of the overseas medical and aesthetic business; (2) Overseas medical and aesthetic medicine: This shows that after achieving positive profits, the growth rate of overseas medical and aesthetic revenue has improved in 24 years+continued improvement in profitability is expected to contribute more to the increase in performance. (3) Liraglutide: Based on compliance indications, there is plenty of room for growth in 24 years. It is expected that 24Q1 will complete the admission coverage of more than 1,000 hospitals/the target number of 30,000 single-terminal pharmacies around the Spring Festival.
Profit forecast: In 23 years, the company's core domestic medical and aesthetic product, Yiyanshi continued to increase profits, and the company's overall medical and aesthetic business's profitability continued to increase. In addition, liraglutide products for weight loss indications continued to be released, and it can be expected that they will make a better contribution to the company's revenue and profits in 24 years. We expect the company's net profit to be 28.4/34.9/4.17 billion yuan in 2023-2025, up 13.5%/23.1%/19.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 18/15/13X, respectively.
Risk factors: R&D clinical progress falls short of expectations, marketing results fall short of expectations, and increased competition for medical and aesthetic products.