Incidents:
The company announced its 2023 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 28.12-2,862 billion yuan, an increase of 12.50%-14.50%; deducted non-net profit of 27.35-2,784 billion yuan, an increase of 13.50%-15.50%; and basic earnings per share of 1.61-1.64 yuan/share.
2023Q4, the company expects to achieve net profit of 6.23-673 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.25%-29.90%; after deducting non-net profit of 575-623 million yuan, an increase of 13.04%-22.51% year-on-year.
Comment:
1. The company's four major businesses have been growing steadily, and the volume of the medical and aesthetic business at home and abroad has reached a record high. During the reporting period, the company's production and operation work was carried out steadily, and all four major business segments achieved positive growth. 1) The pharmaceutical industry continued to stabilize the in-hospital market and promote outpatient expansion, and maintained steady growth overall. Among them, liraglutide injections, as the first liraglutide biosimilar approved for marketing in China, have been sold in more than 800 large hospitals. It is expected that more than 1,000 hospitals will be admitted by the end of the first quarter of this year; 2) The medical and aesthetic business has achieved good profits at home and abroad, and the overall operating revenue has achieved the best results in history. More than 600 domestic contracts have been signed Cooperative hospitals have trained more than 1,200 doctors, and have continued to further develop the high-end regenerative injection market. The bipolar radiofrequency anti-aging device Rui Ai has also received good user feedback since its launch in June last year; 3) Pharmaceutical commercial revenue has stabilized in the fourth quarter after being affected by fluctuations in market demand; 4) Industrial microorganisms continue to expand xRNA, APIs & intermediates, health and biomaterials, and animal insurance businesses to improve the core business layout and accelerate the cultivation of large varieties. Among them, Nan Nongdong Pharmaceutical has completed the national distribution network layout, and the Mengdi brand continues to develop online business.
2. R&D and innovation are progressing steadily, and multiple sectors have entered a period of intensive harvesting. 1) In the pharmaceutical industry sector, a number of innovative drug products are expected to be marketed or submitted for marketing this year. Among them, somituximab injections were accepted by the NMPA in October 23 and included in the priority review list. The marketing application for injectable linacipid was accepted in November 23, and the phase III clinical trial of advanced non-small cell lung cancer with EGFR sensitive mutations has reached the main end point. It is expected that applications for marketing will be submitted this year. Zevocciolenol injection will be accepted for marketing in October '22 and the marketing application for senapalibal in August 23; Innovative healthcare The HD-NP-102 registration application for the device is in the review stage, and the MB-102 injection is expected to be accepted for marketing in combination with the innovative drug MB-102; the marketing application for the biosimilar usinumab injection for adult moderate to severe plaque psoriasis was accepted in August 23; the GLP-1 pipeline also continues to enrich the comprehensive and differentiated product layout of innovative drugs+biosimilar drugs, such as oral/injectables, long-term effects, and multiple targets. 2) Medical and aesthetic sector, Ellansé?
Lee Yeon-si? Clinical trials of the M-type and MaiLi series are progressing in an orderly manner. V20 accepted marketing applications in September 23 and is expected to be approved this year.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 419.38, 467.74, and 518.56 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.20%, 11.53%, and 10.86%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 28.30, 35.18, and 4.242 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.24%, 24.30%, and 20.57%, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 17.95, 14.44, and 11.97 times, respectively, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Product development progress falls short of expectations, market expansion falls short of expectations, mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations, increased market competition, risk of industry policy changes, risk of changes in the international environment, etc.