Introduction to this report:
The 2023 performance is expected to increase by 122-196%. The company actively adapts to changes in market and consumer demand, and makes concerted efforts in multiple dimensions of business format optimization, supply chain upgrading and business format expansion, forming a stronger multi-format linkage advantage within the region.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the increase in holdings. Taking into account the pressure on 23Q4 performance, the 23/24/25 EPS was reduced by 0.22/0.54/0.62 yuan (previous value was 0.44/0.55/0.65 yuan). Considering the contribution of the new business, 27xPE was given, which is slightly higher than the industry average in 2024, and the target price was lowered to 14.48 yuan (previous value was 15.8 yuan) to maintain the increase in holdings.
Performance summary: The performance is lower than expected. Net profit is expected to return to the mother in 2023 of 120-160 million yuan, an increase of 0.66-106 million yuan over the previous year, and an increase of 122.01% to 196.02% year on year. In 2023, non-net profit is expected to be deducted from RMB 0.85 to 125 million, an increase of RMB 0.71 to 111 million, and an increase of 500.02% to 782.38% year on year. The gap compared to expectations is large, or may be due to exploring new business formats in the second half of the year. The estimated net profit loss for Q4 is 0.48-088 million yuan, after deducting non-net profit loss of 0.66 to 106 million yuan.
Actively adapt to changes in the market and consumer demand, continuously optimize stores and enhance the supply chain. The company focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency in stores, continuously optimizing, adjusting and upgrading, and continuously improving profitability through internal exploration of potential efficiency and closing inefficient stores. At the same time, changes in the supply chain system have been steadily promoted, product strength and shopping experience have been enhanced, and good customer flow growth has been achieved.
Pay attention to digital construction and actively promote new business formats. The company continues to promote digital construction, organizational transformation, process optimization, and continuously improve operation and management efficiency. In addition, seize the trend of affordable consumption, actively lay out and develop snack stores and discount stores, integrate and share internal resources, create a continuous and effective business model and category structure, accelerate development through a model combining direct management and franchise, and form a stronger multi-format linkage advantage within the region.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic downturn, consumer confidence weakens; store expansion is progressing slowly.